That’s quite a range there Gary, bottom capitulation phase below last April 2013 low of 1180 to the upper end of your 5 yr target of 7,000-10,000/oz.
Might as well lower your lower value to 250 /oz and upper end to 10,000/oz. Then you are bound to get it right.

All things continue as they were…

That was the thought process back in Noah’s day and as usual that is the same mistake today.

Back in Noah’s day they must have thought he was a crack pot.

It had never rained before. An ark was the last thing anyone needed for safety.

Day after day Noah and his three sons prepared for the day when the rains would come.

I’m sure they must have been the butt of jokes and ridicule.

Sure enough though the rains came and only Noah and his family were prepared.

Everyone else perished.

And so it is today.

People are starting to scoff at the idea the dollar could collapse.

They’ve been saying that for years say the naysayers.

Jim Willie has been saying that forever.

The gold bulls keep beating the same drum.

This is the talk of the day.

And so it goes.

Just like in the days of Noah they are convinced all things continue as they were.

Will the dollar collapse? Perhaps not. But will it always be top dog? Maybe not.

For the times they are a changing.

Just today (Wednesday) Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, while being interviewed by CNBC’s Steve Liesman, said if China wanted to have a reserve currency they are going to have to let the Yuan trade more freely. The United States has been complaining about the Yuan peg for years. They (the United States) want the Yuan to strengthen. Be careful what you wish for.

Let that sink in.

If China wants the Yuan to be a reserve currency they are going to have to let the Yuan trade more freely.

Twenty years ago did you ever think you would hear China and reserve currency in the same sentence from our Treasury Secretary? Ten years ago?

And here it is today.

Did anyone notice this statement while they were saying all things remain as they are?

The dollar has given up 80 on the usd index and approaching a 78 handle fairly quickly.
Oil is over $103 a barrel and rising.
The FED is boxed in and committed to easy money.
Gold’s take down is stalling

All things are not as they were.

People right now are giving up. It is a war of attrition.

They are being hoodwinked and preoccupied with HFT and front running.

Focus on the real manipulation in the gold and silver markets.

The ones BM and CT refuse to acknowledge or hide in the tall weeds.

The manipulation that the media is starting to report on and law firms are starting to get wind of.

Many people are focusing on the technicals, while self professed experts call for blow off bubbles in stocks and yet another capitulation in gold.

If you are going to go in that direction you better be right, or you’ll miss it!

Choose your path wisely.

I said a few days ago don’t be surprised if the bottom is in for gold and this last take down was an orchestrated event to kill the spirit of the gold bulls. I stand by that.

I also said we might have seen the top in stocks. I stand by that too.

When I said that someone called me whimsical, disrespecting me by saying I can’t lead and am a front runner. The person is clueless. A troll. There is no time for people in the peanut gallery.

Since it is spring and the Kentucky Derby is approaching I think it is time for another horse racing analogy (my apologies to Heavy Hitter)

In the spring of 1993 the three year old colt Sea Hero was prepping for the Kentucky Derby.
He spent the winter of 1993 down in Florida where the weather was warm.

I had been following this horse from the moment he stepped onto the race track as a two year old..

As a two year old the year before Sea Hero showed great promise and class.
Winning the prestigious and venerable Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.

He was owned and trained by two outstanding horsemen.

He was an early Derby favorite.

But as the calendar rolled over from 1992 to 1993 Sea Hero’s form deteriorated.

In February in his three year old debut in the Palm Beach Stakes he ran a next to last 9th.
Eighteen days later in an allowance race against inferior horses that was supposed to be a confidence booster he struggled home 5th.

At that point he fell off the radar and became the forgotten horse; his Kentucky Derby plans all but gone.

His connections, Paul Mellon and Mack Miller decided they wouldn’t give up on the horse, since his pedigree was too good. They knew their horse, they knew his potential, they didn’t give up on him. They stuck to their guns.

Shipping the horse to Kentucky, where the weather was cooler, he ran in one of the last major prep races for the Kentucky Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He was a well beaten fourth. But it was an improved effort.

At that point he was entered in the Kentucky Derby, and went off a 13-1 longshot with little chance.

The fickle public had given up on the horse.
They had judged his string of defeats as proof the horse didn’t have ability to compete any more.
They looked at his recent performance and completely disregarded him.

It was a classic case of what have you done for me lately.

Or in today’s parlance…all things continue as they are.

They didn’t see what I saw.

They read the past performances and saw a horse who was off form and struggling, they saw what they were given.

I read between the lines.

I saw a horse with real class, an outstanding pedigree, and a horse who just didn’t like the warm weather of Florida.

When he got to Kentucky and the cooler weather; he put on muscle, perked up, and turned the corner. The old Sea Hero was back.

When he got to Kentucky his 4th place finish against top competition signaled to me his form was just starting to come back.

It was a good enough race to see he was getting ready to get back in his game but it wasn’t too good that it was obvious to everyone.

Only those handicappers who knew something had changed, subtle as it was, knew he was a new horse, the weather had made the difference.

You don’t see that in a past performance line or a chart.

Having all the right ingredients, an overlooked horse, value, and edge I sent it in.

I bet big in a big pool.

Sea Hero came barreling down the stretch winning by 2 1/2 lengths and paying $26 to win.

I made more money in two minutes than most people make in a year.

I crushed the race.

I believe the setup is the same in the gold market right now.

People are discouraged. They are losing faith.

They think all things will continue as they are.

Like Sea Hero’s good 4th in his last race before the Derby, $1300 looks disappointing, on the surface. But gold’s performance in 2014, is like Sea Hero’s 4th place finish right before the Derby. It was good, but not good enough to get heads turning.

People see the charts, and it looks negative. But like the public who didn’t see what was important for Sea Hero, they are only seeing what everyone else sees.

Look elsewhere. Look between the lines.

Now I know horse racing and the markets are not the same.

The markets don’t behave as rational as horse races do; I only wish they did.

However the players are all the same. Fear, greed, hope…is common to all investing.

I also know that a horse race can be fixed, like the markets, so in this respect they are similar.

Where they are different is a horse race can be fixed, whereas the markets are fixed.
See the difference?

So with that said…

I will stay the course with gold.

Stocks can continue to have a grand old time, as the FED put will be in place.

But the laws of economics will not be denied.

Eventually the day will come when, like Sea Hero, everything will come together for gold.

I think we could be nearing that time.

Will the dollar collapse? Can’t say. But it went to 72 on the usd index a few years back.
It could go to 72 again. What will you do then? You need to know now.

Will oil go to $140? Who knows.
But it went there before. It could go there again.
What will you do then? You need to know now.

Will Russia invade the rest of Ukraine and sweep the map like a good general sweeping the Risk board? They’ve done it before. They can do it again.
What will you do then? You need to know now.

Will China drop the currency bomb and announce how much gold they have, declaring to the world the dollar can no longer be trusted and they want to be a reserve currency.
They’ve said it before. They can say it again. And do it.
What will you do then? You need to know now.

So the question is will you wait for $1000 gold before you climb aboard, or will you get on the train now while it slowly pulls out of the station.

Are you going to have your ark built, or are you going to be like the mockers in Noah’s day.

The rain is coming. Will you have gold for a rainy day?

If you’re a long-term investor in gold the risk is not being invested, even with a grind lower. Under either scenario, Gary’s or Doc’s, gold will be (much) higher by year-end. If you’re more a short-term investor or trader there’s much more to gain IF Gary is correct (i.e. buy at the capitulation lows). If you’re not invested and wait for capitulation lows and they don’t come, you better be ready to buy gold back before you lose too many of the future gains. Bold call by Gary. By Independence Day we should know if he was correct.

Thanks Gary but I do disagree.

Not for the reasons though that you feel. In the summer last year I was buying gold stocks for absolutely stupid stink bids that should never have been filled. That was capitulation IMHO. I had more sellers than I could handle. thousands actually since I was the only one human person buying..

Further the machines have stopped the millions of crap bids. If one does a scan of many stocks in gold the millions of stink bids are not there in level 2 anymore.

I beleive that HFT was the primary culprit driven by the banksters to drive the crpa out of this market.

I own stocks liek the machiens do and we aren;t selling, we are buying……

The buying ont he dips is there – just look…..
There is no selling in strength at all.

So as everyman sells his shares, those that exist apparently but I haven;t seen them in 6 months – I and others who love this market will buy….

If your 1000 comes to pass then all the better. Only strong hands are left my friend.

Gary: “IiIiIiI thiIiIiIiInk….”

Really?

Onemore thing

I say again, the markets in general are up 300-400% after 5 years, your parablic has already happened last year.

the technicals say the same thing..

another 2% for the NASDAQ this afternoon…..

The selling will flood shortly. I fully expect a 1987 crash in the next quarter

Gary makes some very valid points about how markets bottom. The hate that I see in the comments on a daily basis is a good judge of sentiment. Fact remains there are still too many bulls.

Both Doc and Gary say gold down, seems the differance is how.
I have no idea whats going to happen but I wont dismiss either out of hand.
Me, Ive got cash for either scenario.
The bottom, I think is about $1000, everyone knows I figure that’s it as that’s when the Chinese told their people to buy and they have a “shekel” or two to defend that area and increase holdings, as a matter of fact they could be “licking their chops” at the thought.
Gary isn’t saying anything others have been saying for some time, 100 da
ys etc.
$7000 gold, most people would know that’s what Rickards has been saying for how man years?

Physical is always easy, price doesn’t matter, just buy it. (should you be a believer)
Shares on the other hand, that’s the challenge, at least it is for me.
Altho I do feel that there will come a point to buy and hold, maybe until an objective is achieved.
That way the only risks is the market itself, the broker, the bank, the currency the guy that wants to rob you when he sees you withdraw it etc. The minor stuff. lol

Thanks Gary for all input.

oops, Gary isn’t saying anything others have not been saying for some time, $100 price moves in a day.

Gary,

I believe that I am a very mild and reasonable person. After listening to you for the last few months, I feel you always plan for the worst case scenarios to happen. However, it may happen or may not. What you fear and want to happen may not occur. After the washout last year, the gold bulls in the West are diehard bulls. I think very few of them will give up now, just like Rick Rule famously said “since you have stayed for the pain, why not stay for the gain?” The true gold bulls are in the East who keep buying up more than the annual production of the world every year. They couldn’t care less about the technicals. US and Europe are the net exporters of gold. US hedge funds are net short and they are like deer in the headlights and may take any opportunity to cover. Who is left to sell? JPM and GS maybe, but they may find it is the rope which they use to hang themselves.

The chance of gold goes under 1000 is slim. Even it happens, how much do you lose? 20%? It is minimal compared to the gain you can have by staying in.

However, if you keep stay on the sideline to wait for the big drop, you may miss the biggest opportunity to protect your wealth. Your supposedly safe money will be diluted by the massive money printing and the balance will go to the banks.

I do have 50K set aside to by dip but I am not counting it to happen.

Just my two cents. Good luck.

Lawrence

Gold is not volatile at all (maybe in dollar terms, but not purchasing power), in fact, it has flatlined for 5000 years, never losing it’s value. And for the long term, conservative investor has been the best place to have had your wealth for the last 100 years, PERIOD. For that reason is why I’m not spooked by the bearish sentiment about gold. Charts are drawn by people talking their positions.

A couple of observations, FWIW…
People talk in terms of people (or money) moving in and out of the market, but understand that this does not happen in the aggregate. Regardless of how low a market goes, every security in the float is owned by SOMEONE all the way down. Likewise, every ounce of gold is owned by SOMEONE, regardless of the magnitude of the price decline.

Securities and commodities are transferred from one holder to another. So even in a crash or capitulation, every mining share will be owned. The price change is a function of what is happening at the marginal trade — what price it took to convince the next buyer or seller to complete a transaction.

From that standpoint, if the broad market crashed, could you have another washout in physical gold and the mining shares? Yes, it is possible. It could even happen on relatively light volume — in which the bulk of the float goes untraded, but the relatively few who do panic transact at bids that are far below current prices. A crash is when buyers sit on their hands and a severe markdown is offered to entice a buyer off the sidelines (whether it is for 100 shares or a million).

As I have tried to explain in a prior post, to examine whether you could have a broad capitulation among gold bugs now (the existing holders of mining shares), you have to be able to make some judgment regarding the frame of mind of the existing shareholder base.

I contend that a lot of stock has moved into stronger hands. If I am representative of the average holder of mining stocks, there will be no capitulation because I can tell you that it would be impossible to pry the shares from my hands. Having done of the bulk of the buying during and subsequent to wash outs, there is no sense of urgency for me to sell. And I am not on margin — I own them for cash and can’t be forced out of them.

For Gary’s scenario to work out, I think you need to have a large number of legacy shareholders who are still deeply underwater and then panic on a subsequent decline. I grant that I could be wrong regarding to what extent the shareholder float turned over during the summer and year-end washouts of 2013.

Barring the left field event of a crash in the broad market, we shall see. Have a good day everybody!

Big Al…you have a tech issue on your site as the previous posts by jj are not mine the oringinal jj…again todays posts are not mine

Gary being stopped out today is entertaining. And I thought he would pick the exact bottom and top.

I would like to know when the Dow fell to 6,500 in 2009 and bounced right back up same day. Where was the capitulation stage for that bear market in stocks?

If equities continue to fall, and they’re falling hard today (again), could money actually flow into gold? Safe haven? (Not the miners as they will fall at least some as they are still stocks.) Instead of a grind lower in gold, could we have a grind higher? Hmmm…

Heavy Hitter – Stay the course my friend!

Be right and sit tight, and dont let the bull throw you.

Or the bull that gets thrown around here!

I think your Gary is wrong. The 50 day average is trading above the 200 (GOLDEN CROSS). Gold is trading above the 50 day. The MACD is crossing over to the upside. The slow stochastic has crossed over strongly to the upside. Everything points to higher prices on the near term in my opinion.

I wonder how much of the down moves we see are naked shorting and short-term traders responding.

As low as things are now, buy and hold is a fine strategy, IMO. But it would be nice to have some cash on hand if there is a further capitulation from here.

Loosing 20% from here would be devastating for me.

Kitco spot gold’s at ~1320 now. On his website Gary said the expects gold to hit 1320-25 as a likely turning spot, and we are here now. And now the $HUI is showing a clear and strong reversal candle. So far Gary’s cycles work is playing out.

And I read that Goldman Sachs predicted 1000 gold dead ahead.

All bear markets end w/a washout, and we haven’t had one yet.

I think Gary’s overall thinking here is correct. Have a plan ready if it happens, because it would be hard to see gold actually fall to 1000, and start buying. Sounds easy here, but at 1000 I bet we’d all be thinking about 730 or whatever. It will be hard. This is the cool think about cycles.

What you say is true Al, so thanks. But it’s for everyone, isn’t it?

And who are these experts? What’s the right path here? No one knows Al.

Mainstream investors say go long S&P and buy/hold forever, but that’s insane post yr 2000.

Gold bugs say buy and hold gold bullion forever, and that’s fine if one bought at 300, but for those who bought at 1900 they are in pain.

I for one lost almost no money during this entire PM bear market, so I’m doing good these past few yrs. I won’t short gold, and I can’t bring myself to go long the S&P. I am just waiting for gold to bottom. I use monthly charts to see this. Right now gold’s/HUI’s on a sell signal, investment wise.

I’m not 100% sold on cycles myself, but I do think that Gary’s been much more right than wrong. More and more I think that among all the traders out there, he’s probably the best.

But back to your point, know that I keep my head on and eyes open, and I never bet the farm.

That was an AWESOME interview Gary. I swear…you are pure genius. You ought to be working for the Fed!

By the way…that was the second time I burst out laughing about a show today. Please Cory! You are killing me. It’s not often you hear the interviewer lecture the guest and then give his own views so sternly. Al should interview you instead of Gary maybe.

One last bit from me. I just read Eric’s post higher above here about capitulation, and I think it’s very very good and worth reading a few times if one hasn’t already.

Just sort of adding a comment to it, I’d say that as far as gold bugs go, they all seem to be always optimistic, to a fault. So I’d agree that gold bugs wouldn’t sell, and wouldn’t cause the sell off. But institutional investors might. I don’t know, but in general these past 2-3 yrs we’ve seen institutional investors saying buy no gold, then buy 5-10%, back to buy none, all because the S&P has been going up and up and up, and the Fed has their back, and all that, so gold now may be seen by institutional investors as an underperform, or a non-perform. So using Eric’s logic that a small bit of selling can beget a larger decline, I think if a few of these folks did sell, that it could hit stops and create a huge washout in gold.

Me, I love reading this stuff, but have no clue about what the true facts are, so I just follow PRICE.

That’s it for me, probably for a long while. Too much talking for me. Later!

I am trying to keep the “big picture” in mind for this Spring & not so much on day today price swings in the PM’s. Gary and a couple of others have their reputations on the line calling for a “capitulation”/”wash out” leg down as needed. Has to happen etc. Sprott, Casey, Doc etc say the double bottom is in. Somebody is going to be very wrong by the end of June! As posted before, I have decided to slowly average in.
I am also going to call out any of the above no matter who they are if any of them start with the “if it doesn’t this It could to that, but it might do this or any shoulda, woulda, coulda blather”. NO excuses on major near term three month calls. OK?

I have one more observation (sorry!). I listened again to the recording, and have a comment to Cory about his wanting a smooth bottom and a smooth transition upward.

Well, gold is currency, and its a commodity, too. And the track record of most commodities is extremely volatile. That includes gold and silver.

Some quick facts from the charts:

– Gold rose from 250 to 1900, then fell to 1200.
– Silver from 5 to 50 to 20.
– Oil from 10 to 150 to 30 to 100.
– Copper from 0.60 to 4.60 to 3.00.

Net is, EXPECT volatility. I don’t like it, but it’s reality, so one has to accept and expect it. Especially since gold is the anti-dollar. It will be a fight to the death.

I’m done now. 😉

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvGJvzwKqg0#aid=P-eUfYUk5GM It’s just not for hippies anymore, Country Joe And The Fish.

I am not being rude nor am I stealing someone’s moniker.
I chose JJ and your systems accepted it.

If you find my comments rude then I apologize. Further if this name is being used then I will choose another.

This is site issue not my issue. It should not have accepted my request

I disagree with Gary and was polite in a my disagreement.

I am pleased with your views. Can not understand why these people give you such a hard time. I hope gold goes low because it will be a fire sale. Great oppurtunity to back up the truck. Thanks Gary!!!!

Never would dream of saying all of it is bull.

Most of it is good.

Just some of it is bull. Thats what you have to watch out for

Gary bought SPY and QQQQ shares with the expectation to make a 20-30% profit over the next few weeks. The next day he got stopped out. I’m impressed. That’s the kind of trading strategy that only makes the broker rich.

Are we gonna hear more stock market bubble phase and gold capitulation phase in today’s interview? If yes I’m gonna puke instantly on my keyboard.

Birdman – I was referring to Bob Moriarty, but I think you know that.
Glad you enjoyed the post!