I agree again.

Weak hands? More like singed hand. Sold my puts for a 2.8% gain. Will not do anything ahead of the employment report. Probably just wait until Monday.

yes i agree ! White diss f***** manipulators you never know tanks fore the info !

good info tanks !

Sure I have an opinion, B. I would say Cecil is a little late to the “gold is going to crash” party. He looks set to have his heart broken on the Bitcoin thing as well. For the most part, the bear case he plays out has already taken place. Not that I would disagree we see 1000 or lower in 2014 as that is indeed what I expect but in my view the worst of the losses are behind us now and the probabilities favour a new period of ascending prices once the consolidation period has ended.

I disagree with all the bears, but this guy is particularly unimpressive. He says: “The gold bug’s arguments haven’t played out in the last decade and the won’t in the next unless a worst case scenario of an apocalyptic nature happens.” —-
I don’t know what arguments he is referring to, but my reasons for owning gold have played out very well. Gold is still up nearly 5 times in the last decade, and this guy thinks that makes gold investors wrong?
He goes on to say: “Here are some problems with gold…
You can’t spend gold.
It isn’t subdividable.
It is finite and costly to mine, let along find.
It is a very small market when thinking about global assets.
Its not driven by theoretical values of money
—-
Really? Gold isn’t “subdividable?” It is a “problem” that “it is finite and costly to mine, let along find.” And that “It is a very small market when thinking about global assets.”

Like gold, T-bills are held for safety and liquidity. Does he spend T-bills at Wal-Mart?

This guy is the clueless by-product of decades of Keynesian propaganda.

He also doesn’t know the difference between “dribble” and drivel, yet he spews the latter with authority.

Well okay, nobody will ever be censored for giving his/her opinion in a polite manner.

I know that you don’t think much of Gary, but to me it seems like a valid point.

I really don’t think that he is reversing his position because he was wrong. I think that he is a big believer in manipulation and simply bringing out what he feels is going on.

Tell me where I am wrong, Bruce.

I do agree with your and Bruce’s comments, The Greaster.

If I were Gary, I would not take a short term position. That, to me, spells nothing but trouble.

In the case of gold, I think it is simply unrealistic to think short term.

You are absolutely correct, assuming that your time frame is very short term. Do you think this will still be the case two years from now, The Greater?

James, it is great for a few people but most will never enjoy the gains off a parabolic price rise. It is impossible exactly because if everyone were to sell prices would crash. Hopefully you appreciate that anytime we have seen this kind of pattern it has ALWAYS ended with a crash and reversion to the mean. I don’t see this one playing out differently. We just cannot know how high it will go before the end comes is all. I won’t touch it though. Not liquid enough. Overpriced too.

The Greater,

It is all about time frame. I, for example, can be nervous short term and I should state that. My opinions are usually very different mid to long term.

And remember, this is a discussion forum not an advice forum as we state frequently.

Great story The Greater.

Of course, I agree with your point entirely.

Doffing the hat to you.

a great lesson

I think you are making a good point, Bill. Thank you.

Bill, there has been some screaming about shortages and lineups to buy etc. All bs from what I have been able to tell. Never have I not been able to get all I wanted.
I have seen dealers out of stock for a day or two here and there but thats it.
And I have always been able to buy from another dealer when that happened.
As far as I am concerned supply has always been able to meet demand.
Eric Sprott has repeatedly said he doesnt know where the metel is coming from as his figureing is that demand is greater than world production.
Thats why I wonder about the 170,000 tons K Hudes talks about. The gold has got to be coming from somewhere.
Diamonds are hoarded to keep the price up, why not gold?

buy all you want at low premiums, does not appear to be drying up t o me’

Thank you too, The Greater

Great pun b! Aside from that thank you for your comment as I have to agree with you.

Kngodelwe wants to be free, just like these articles!

As it always does Bruce!

Short version Bill…..what goes down eventually goes back up. Sometimes dramatically. Gold, silver, some resources are boom/bust oriented which means they can swing to extremes in both price and sentiments. It is why guys hold on because of the prospect of so-called 5 or 10 baggers (or better) and tremendous payoffs when the cycle finally comes back around in favour of buyers. At the moment the cycle is punishing the hell out of everyone who bought against a falling trend but as a rule once it turns around it can be pretty rewarding. Its a bit like staying single waiting for that beauty you love to finally come around. But you just dont’ know….she might marry soemone else during the wait!

Bill good thinking, those are the questions everyone struggles with.
Recently I listened to a guy named Oleary, he said hold 5% gold and only buy stocks that pay dididends. There are a few gold companies that do. Oleary is a billionare not stuck on the gold industrey at all, he will invest in anything he figures will make him money. Dragons Den or Shark Tank I think you might see him on.

Anyway, if you “hit” one of these little miners, they pay Big Time. Thats why people are in them, but make no mistake, its a gamble, due diligence can reduce risk but you wont ever get rid of risk.

Maybe let us know if you figure something out.

The 1930s were different, but the conditions that drive gold and the miners are the same. Homestake did extremely well, but the juniors did even better. The miners do best when the real price of gold is rising. Profitability is determined by the real price. The real price ($GOLD:$CCI) has plunged by about a third in the last year, so the miners have done much worse. From the 2000 low to the 2011 peak, the real price more than tripled while the nominal price more than sextupled. In the first half of 2011, the real price went vertical, rising more than 50%. This action lead the market to take on more leverage/speculative risk. For some, this meant futures; for others it meant juniors with low-grade suboptimal deposits —the kind that would quickly become worthless if the POG fell in real terms.
If we get an economic expansion (what some consider to be inflation), copper and zinc could easily outperform gold. From the 1999-2001 lows to the 2006 highs, copper, lead, and zinc went up more than 6 fold while gold didn’t quite triple. It wasn’t until the crash of 2008 that the real price of gold took off. From its June ’08 low to its January ’09 high, gold doubled against commodities in general and did much better than that against base metals including platinum.
I like the miners much better at this time, but they are no replacement for bullion. I am not currently as worried as Jim Sinclair is about brokerage risk, but I did hold half of my positions in certificate form from 2007 until 2009.

Can’t agree with you ms.

I have done a fair amount of research into this issue and talked with a lot of folks who I respect and, because of that, I really don’t think it is stupid at all.

MS, I havnt followed but if the “they” your talking about are the people manipulating, you could if you wanted find out with your own research. Maybe start with the coinage act of …I think 1965 and a speech by president Johnston.

I have posted multiple times who “they” are and what “they” have done.
I dont no, i guess libor dont count? 85 billion a month dont count? plunge protection team dont count?
It goes on and on really. If your not concerned as Bob Moriarity says “buy bitcoin”.
I can see you getting very wealthy, pictures of full breasted women serving you drinks under palm trees on silver sanded beaches as far as the eye can see. Yup, bitcoin for sure.

LUCK DIS http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSeOVf0D-VQ !!!!!!!!

” call that manipulation if you want but the market is just reacting to supply/demand”

Theoretically yes, but any questionable action, like massive shorting, in my mind falls into the category of manipulation.

Bruce, about 30 years ago I complained about manipulation. But I didnt realise it was manipulation at the time. No pewters then. My info was rather limited.
I actually think it started in 1913, at least thats the earliest I know of.
But Rothchild was wealthy I believe in 1850? and that family was not above making a shilling by hook or crook.

At least he does not shove the religous crap down our throats like the guy he replaced did.

You might be right, just don’t go broke in the process.

Of course you have to look out for your family!

Remember my philosophy, DIVERSIFY (This is not investment advice!)

We listen to everybody because we are open minded. Does not mean that we agree.

Neilza, we listen to everyone and make no judgements here.

Thanks for your comment.

Nor mine eagleeye because I don’t claim to give any!

Precisely

Down but not out, Nielza. These trends do turn back eventually. Especially at the conclusion of a multi decade period of credit expansion. Was reading Armstrong this morning and he pointed out a fascinating piece of history that is often forgotten about the last time currencies made a faceplant following a long period of sovereign debt buildup.

What he was noting was that the depression of the Thirties had more to do with debt failures of sovereigns than it had to do with the stock market collapsing. Stock markets in this case were more emblematic of the publics broad participation using massive leverage in the creation of an equities bubble that could not be sustained against the backdrop of excess debt buildup in the system globally. It is a fascinating period in history and one we rarely discuss in detail.

Between 1930 and 1933 no less than 22 countries defaulted on their debts in one form or another and that included virtaully all of South and Central America plus Mexico, the US and China. The list of affected countries also included Columbia, Cost Rica, El Salvadore, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Dominican, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Guatemala and Ureguay. And lets not forget Germany, the UK, Hungary, Greece and Bulgaria to round out the list. It was a global disaster.

That is one major part of the reason that gold and gold equities took on a new significance during the Thirties especially as currency devaluations became rampant, trade barriers were being errected, distortions in capital flows erupted and a subsequent inability of many countries to service debts denominated in currencies other than their own as exports dropped sharply came home to roost.

It is at times like these that money matters again and the idea of debt being sufficiently collateralized or backed by revenues supporting its creation become important to investors in more than a vague sense that genuine security exists for their investments.

Cycles repeat as we are often told and this one will be no exception. We are again living through a time when debts have grown unsustainably large for a great many countries and the worry of defaults looms for more than just the usual small countries in the world that most often suffer the risk of a large mismatch between their obligations and the incomes sufficient to service them.

As we saw in the Great Depression, once countries began to default (Mexico and Ecuador first during 1929) then those events seemed to set the stage for the conditions of a wider systemic debt collapse that eventually encompassed most of the world. The US stock market crash was itself a signalling event so we had best keep that in mind if anyone is still thinking a big fat S&P correction might bring on a necessary and overdue reset that will somehow be healthy for all markets. It also brings war.

When we look back at those difficult times though we also note something else that is important. The stock market crash of 29 in fact preceded the great bulk of the soereign defaults. So we know that when the critically important opportunity arose for investors to be positioning for best advantage that would subsequently be presented in gold equities that sentiments towards stocks could not have been more depressed.

At that point many highly leveraged investors had already been wiped out to zero and most of the surviving market was in tatters. Losses were legendary and confidence fell to extreme lows. Clearly, if you had lost your job, home, capital and even your mind following the great crash you were in no position to be jumping on a gold badwagon!

A flight to the safety of bonds and debt instruments by the refugees of equity markets was then greeted with a series of devastating defaults and failures of nation states to make good on issues. Misery was compounded on misery as both debts and their associated assets were extinguished over the ensuing years. Very few people understood the dynamics at play and fewer still took steps to prepare or even knew what to do. The importance of being free of debt and ensuring your household remains solvent during such crisis cannot therefore be overstated.

Cash matters. How you store and protect it as an investment matters too. What should have been learned over that miserable decade is that there are no safe harbours for assets and that even those that do exist often do not materialize until the months and years following significant losses in other asset classes. So it is not necessarily so easy to jump from one class to another nor to do it seamlessly and without facing risk in the holding periods that lie between them. Even cash in banks was not safe then as bank failures were what we can probably term epic.

This time around we are seeing some similarities to the last great correction. Iceland, Greece, Ireland and Cyprus have defaulted or come to the very brink and we have other equally insolvent nations propping them up with the artificially created wealth of Central Bank largesse and interventionist policy which most know is just a charade of false wealth shifting from one entity to another.

What does it really mean when a country like England, burdened by one of the highest levels of debt on earth per capita to be buying up sovereign debts and bank issues of other states already in outright default? This obviously works for only so long as every country mutually agrees to ignore the fact that monetary intervention is not the equivalent of repairs that require fiscal solutions.

We can know that debt has become insoluable in other words as soon as tax revenues and income from exports are insufficient to service the obligations of a nation in economic contraction. This idea is central to the growing problem of meeting social commitments such as pensions, health care and welfare and investors must be concerned that the resolution to our current problems, when they arrive, will be no less distressing than what was experienced in the past.

So where does gold fit in and when exactly will it be meaningful as an asset to shore up and preserve the wealth of those who can survive all of a stock market meltdown, series of bank failures and an implosion of the bond markets?

Well that is the puzzle we need to work out for ourselves. There are no easy answers to the question of wealth preservation. As they say…..history rhymes but it does not repeat. What we do know with certainty though is that debt cycles repeat themselves over the long haul and there are enough similarities that having just a little good information will allow us the insights to avoid making the biggest of mistakes.

Miners, especially juniors, are always volatile. You should know that anything that can return 10 to 100 times your money is very risky.
I already own three of the picks that Bob is currently pushing, but I never buy a company that he promotes. Liquidity and positive sentiment can go away quickly due to the falling profitability/NAV caused by falling metals prices. This always has a huge negative impact on the miners. Even the best, most legitimate stock pickers can be made to look inept in such an environment. The juniors are no place for a big chunk of your money or a short term investment horizon —unless you fully understand the risks and the sector.
When any well-known personality puts out free picks, in any sector, beware.