Monday and The Doctor Is In
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James, don’t worry, you won’t be the one to spoil my party. I doubt that you would be so pessimistic if if you didn’t have so much long exposure on the way down.
Try to look at things through the eyes of someone who hasn’t been caught on the wrong side. Don’t you like a great deal? Would you rather buy asset classes that are extremely overbought or extremely oversold?
This potnisg knocked my socks off
“This is madness.
That’s a terrible investment.”
I have to agree with you The Greater. But remember that is simply not the reason we hold precious metals!
I pretty much agree James. I think that gold will follow the CEMIG Brazilian stock chart pattern to some degree and make a couple more new lows then grind up slowly with stumbles in a few years’ time.
The producers as Mark Bristow said in his Kitco interview recently (CEO of Randgold) will have to discipline themselves and cut back production to starve the market of metal to get the price back up again. Then there can be a real bull market again but it could take years. Not that I think that much to much that he says but Jeff Christian of CPM Group saying $920-2000 may be reached by year 2020 might have about right, considering that he was actually too bullish for 2013 by a long way, I do not take him as a bear in gold but more of a realist.
A realist? The guy was way too bearish during all the up years and too bullish in a nasty down year. Jeff’s just another Roubini or Cramer.
Yeah he was probably too bearish and now too bullish perhaps. However, I think his outfit is not looking at tops and bottoms but yearly averages or pwerhaps quarterly or half-yearly averages because those are key to mining companies and other long term people in the market, rather than short term traders.
In the end though, these ‘hated’ figures Nadler and Christian would have kept us all out of the market from 2000-2012 when a lot of people have got absolutely slaughtered I don’t necessarily believe them but I think it is wise to tak good note of what they have said.
Another thing about Jeff Chriastian. He made some really weird conspiracy theory type comments about the US government on the Kerry Lutz podcast a few weeks ago but absolutely will not entertain any accweptance of any manipulation whatsoever in the precious metals!
The one comment that I would make about Jeff is, “I do think that he is a bright individual.” Doesn’t mean that I agree with him always, but he is very bright!
I don’t doubt that, Al.
I’m glad I was a buyer over the last couple of weeks because some of the juniors I was buying cost more today than they did then. If the market stays down, I will continue to buy.
I don’t expect a new high for gold until Q2 2015, but sooner would not surprise me. 2014 should be good either way (for gold).
The retail sales figures are down. Maybe the people just have no disposable cash.
Bill Still made a great point the other day, silver never saved anyone in the depression of the 30s.
Funny tho, if we are to believe the mints selling coins and bars are at all time highs.
Maybe the people figureing out retail figures were looking at the wrong retail outlets.
I can’t believe you’re still falling for Still. Gold doesn’t “save” anyone from dictators. It preserves purchasing power. That’s all. If it “saved” everyone from bad people, Ron Paul would not be wasting his time trying to get the people to understand it so that they will DEMAND it. He would simply promote buying it.
Anyone who puts their savings into gold for the mid to long term will preserve their purchasing power. $100k in gold in 1929 is now worth about $60 million. Even those who bought the 2008 peak ($1033) with $100K now have gold worth over $118,000. As importantly, even when gold falls against the dollar there is protection since commodities tend to fall with gold. The dollar is a speculative debt instrument. If one prefers safety, then one should be willing to accept the opportunity costs of holding gold.
The only recent time that gold has been a poor investment is the recent short term assuming that you define short term as being the most recent year.
“$100k in gold in 1929 is now worth about $60 million” ~~ Matthew
I might be sick today and not working my calculator properly but I think your math stinks. Gold price in 1929 =20.67 versus gold price today equalling 1223.00 gives me a factor of roughly 59 to work with. Multiply by 100 thousand and what do you get? Not even close to 60 million that’s sure. How about 5.9 million instead?
Yeah….that’s pretty darn good. Nothing to cry about for sure.
The low point of the DOW during the depression was 41.22 reached in 1932.
Today the DOW is at 15,996 which gives me a factor of 388 to work with.
100,000 dollars invested in 1932 might theoretically be valued at 38.8 million dollars today.
That is without even considering reinvested dividends.
Hmmmm. I wonder what the better choice was, gold or stocks?
Oops, I was thinking $1M where I typed $100k. $1M was worth nearly 50,000 ounces of gold at that time. It just goes to show why being a millionaire back then was a big deal.
I can’t believe you’re not playing with mea-ht-t was so helpful.
I don’t think that disposable cash is the issue in this case. Look at the recent personal debt numbers!
They don’t count gift cards until they are used. There is your distortion.
Taking the oveiervw, this post is first class
EPIC END COMING !!!!!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUxYcIySvHY !!!!!!!!
Interesting video Franky. I have been hearing this for a long time now. Nothing yet!
The bottom line is if someone didnt own an ounce of gold and woke up this morning wouls they be a buyer of gold, and if so for what % of their portfolio?
I quick response might be yes, because the market has been so beaten down that they are getting a bargain. On the surface this might seem right.
But if you dig a little deeper I dont think so.
The average person will look at the price of gold, where it is and where its been, along with the price of stocks and conclude gold is not worth it.
They would have seen the volatility in an asset that is supposed to be a safe haven and would not buy it.
They would have seen some of theit friends who got a little too clever get slaughtered in the gold makret while thye recoued all of their loses with stocks.
they would see a totally broken market and would not touch it with a 10 foot pole
The bottom line is if I woke up today I would not be a buyer of gold.
people will say thats wrong, it is a bargain, it is on sale
if people think it is a bargain it isnt
when people know its not a bargain then maybe it will be.
for now more carnage can be expected.
i am simply now stuck with my position.
some people are very hard to convince. they keep holding on to new highs for gold but have no reason to support their position other than what everyone else already knows
You should do the opposite of the average person. They will never do anything right as a group. They are price chasers because they don’t know anything. They will pay up happily after the smart money has brought some excitement and much higher prices back to gold.
GOD TELL US YOUR MONNY ISE GOLD AND SILVER !
I don’t disagree Matthew, I simply have to stay diversified so that I can sleep!
It certainly is referred to as that many time in the Bible. (Both the Old and the New Testaments.)
The Greater,
You strike me as being much more intelligent than to put ALL your capital into one vehicle.
Hope I am correct!
Hi I have just been contacted today by Timeshare Refund Network asnikg me about selling Hollywood Mirage on a no win no fee basis told them I had no paperwork at hand so they are ringing back at 4pm at least that gave me time to check your system for cold callers and for advice
Many people like to rationalize the crushing gold has been taking these last few years by stating that it is only purchased for insurance purposes.
I personally think this is a load of bs
I will ask two questions and if you can honestly answer “yes” to both of them, then you are truly buying gold for insurance purposes (or at least what you perceive to be insurance purposes)
The first question is when gold was topping $1900 in Sept 2011 and you owned gold you were not jumping up and down in your living room delighted with the price of gold, but instead you were saying to yourself “it doesn’t matter I only have it for insurance purposes”
The second question is if you had to sell all of your gold holdings today for insurance purposes (emergency, financial distress…) you would be delighted to do so and say to yourself “I am very happy I had gold for insurance because I need it now”
If you can answer yes to both those questions then you are truly buying it for insurance purposes.
give it a rest lester
-when my couch catches afire and Myrtle doused the flames with a bottle of Baby Duck , I was jumping up and down because the house didn’t burn down .. and yes I had insurance.
Ah, you’re an Austrian. A Keynesian would’ve tried to douse the flames with a bottle of Grey Goose!
Douse the films with Goose. Matthew that is almost sinful!
Common man, let’s keep some sanity on this site!
Personally I would avoid dousing any fire with alcohol. First, its a waste of good booze….second it’s way too much like gasoline if you pull the wrong bottle off the shelf!
You are missing one simple point that I personally abide by. That is position of the physical.
My last major purchase of silver was at $14/oz and I purchased silver rounds. I purchased rounds because on the off chance that something happened to our currency system, I felt I would be kind of okay for at least a while. When silver hit $49 or whatever, the thought of selling never entered my mind. Now that silver is around $20 I still don’t even think about it.
Call me stupid, but these are truly my thoughts.
yes yes
The one interesting piece of data that conflicts with the Doc here is that both GDXJ and GDX broke below their June lows and violated a double bottom outcome that was being awaited. Does that signal anything for gold though? We will know by the end of December. I think we should brace ourselves for more bad news on gold if 1190 does not hold.
I don’t know, Bird, I think that it will hold.
The drama is building slowly. We won’t have too long to wait to find out though.
I hate to be the one to throw a wet blanket on everyones optimism in the gold and spoil the party.
I am not beoing the voice of doom, just telling it as it is, and so far I’ve been proven correct, unfortunately.
First I said just last week the gold price was being executed, so lets get it over with.
No sense being on death row for years.
I said we needed a quick $100 to $200 selloff to finally plunge a stake in the gold price and gold bulls.
This is what we are now seeing.
It is getting easier and easier to call a bottom in gold simply because it is going lower.
This is a typical touts playbook.
NO ONE KNOW WHERE OR WHEN THE BOTTOM IS.
And NO ONE KNOWS IF AND WHEN AND HOW MANY YEARS IT WILL TAKE TO GET BACK TO $1900
Frankly, IF, and that’s a BIG IF, it ever gets back to $1900 in 2 to 3 years I personlly would have considered that the worst investment of the last 5 years.
Waiting and hoping, and crossing your fingers, that gold can get back to the all time high in three years?
This is madness.
That’s a terrible investment.
The bottom line is the Sept $1900 was the time to run for the exit, the late comers were slaughtered, the bull market is over, and gold (and silver) could now conceivably trade sideways for several years, if not a decade.
Gold can go to zero!
Yes that is right. Gold can go to zero.
As bitocin and gold now move in opposite direction it is very possible one will keep going up and the other keeps going down.
If the paper makret is truly manipulated and leveraged beyond reason it is entirely possible the paper market can go to zero.
Carzy, right? No
13 years ago it was at $250. Thats pretty close to zero in the scheme of things.
And now we are much much more leveraged, naked shorted and manipulated.
No one know what can happen.
Many people were saying the 3rd quarter of 2013 gold was going to magically turnaround.
They never said why though. They just repeated the same mantra.
Now these charletons ar elong gone.
Now we are hearing 2014 is the year gold will turn around.
But again no one says why. No one brings hard evidence.
Why?
Because no one can know!
At this point all you can do is lick your wounds, stay calm and go down with the ship if need be!
But like Don Michael Corleone said to Carlos –
“Just dont tell me your innocent, it insults my intelligence”