Is a bottom in? Gary thinks so.
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Would he have chucked a case of gold coins in the trash can. £4m of gold would have been about 4000 ounces last year but now its more like 5200 oz (troy weight) that’s about 163 kg.
Bitcoin as the first of these schemes has great bpotential for those who are first in, like any pyramid type MLM thing. Eventually there will probably be loads of these things as it is a route to easy money for those in first. It’s a bit like a do it yourself Federal Reserve for geeks.
I guess that it kind of is.
Rev: THATS FUNNY as HECK! Not for him..
Bob Moriarty: “The market hit bottom in June. Shares are holding up. It’s corrected for 2 years. All your guys calling for lower are wrong, dead wrong. If people have any sense, they would shed the crap and buy stuff that is genuine quality like Allied. It will see $48.”
Well unfortunately a lot of the crap I own is his picks and are worth .10c on the dollar!
Hi Dill,
I can only say that I am glad that I held most of my positions.
Rev: Sure as H E double hockey sticks going to make that mistake with gold!!!
Reprint daaa; Sure as H E double hockey sticks NOT going to make that mistake with gold!!!
Thanks Reverend.
When the big boys buy it is not without good reason. We are all getting smarter and better understanding of the gold market and for the matter all of the markets. Manipulation and insider trading is rampent and we need to learn to follow the big boy leads.
I do agree LGC
I wonder if the signal is in yet. The recent trend. looks unchanged to me, unless gold takes out $1250 in the next 2 days. It has a chance to break out of the recent sloping downtrend and north of 1250 basically right now.
This week I noticed by accident the remarkable similarity between the behaviour of gold and the behaiour of stock of the company CEMIG (US ticker CIG), the Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. in Brazil.
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/gold-compared-to-cemig-stock-uscig.html
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/gold-compared-to-cemig-stock-uscig.html
I originally saw the chart on Sean Hyman’s long Biblical Money Code infomercial, probably linked from Kitco.
The chart suggests new lows for gold but not much lower than $1179, maybe ultimately to the $1000 area, followed by a long grind higher. However, I am looking for more charts showing this pattern, hopefully with positive outcomes!
Al, please delete the one. It had the link in twice and anyway I posted a better comment further down with some more comparisons.
No guarantees in anything. But here is what they said mid 70s decline..
“The economic recovery that is now under way in most countries will likely continue for the next year, gold will lose some of its allure as an investment…[and] with inflation on the wane…[we] foresee the possibility of a price as low as $60 an ounce.”
Thanks for that Dill. Here’s another:
New York Times, 29 August 1976 (3 days after the corrective low had been posted in 1975-1976 before Gold started a 3 year rally into late 1979/early 1980):
“Two years ago gold bugs ran wild as the price of gold rose nearly six times. But since cresting two years ago it has steadily declined, almost by half, putting the gold bugs in flight. The most recent advisory from a leading Wall Street firm suggests that the price will continue to drift downward, and may ultimately settle 40% below current levels.
The rout says a lot about consumer confidence in the worldwide recovery. The sharply reduced rates of inflation combined with resurgence of other, more economically productive investments, such as stocks, real estate, and bank savings have combined to eliminate gold’s allure.
Although the American economy has reduced its rapid rate of recovery, it is still on a firm expansionary course. The fear that dominated two years ago has largely vanished, replaced by a recovery that has turned the gold speculators’ dreams into a nightmare.”
Nothing moves n a straight line that’s for sure and an economic recovery is normal in this cycle. Its all what gold needs to turn around and I wouldn’t take my cue from Wall Street.
Dill, what economic recovery, where ? unless your a banker in hog heaven, sure its rosy with the Fed in your back pocket, life is so good. – Europe is in decline as is the U.S., Japan is doing just fine if you are a cockroach. Unless you are with the BRICS, otherwise you have money enough and are old enough to weather the storm down in S.A. in a gated community, things couldn`t be better.
There seems to be heavy buying of GG & NEM this week at the asking price even as gold was doing intra day dips. The studio dog is about as accurate as any analyst and I am not talking about Gary here.
Unfortunately sometimes correct Paul L!
[…] here Written by Gold […]
I really dont understand “buying” kinda like electricity, can run positive to negative as well as the other way round.
Anyway, I think buying depends on how you look at it, for buying to occur we had to have selling. We could just as correctly say we had 120 million of selling in the gld.
Might be academic of course, think I will go with buying tho.
As kwn says, “to the moon” “the world will never see another event like this one”
On SD silver doc we have an interesting story of the Chinese having already accumilated 20k tons and they are manipulating the heck out of the price to get it cheaper. There guess is 2014 for a gold backed yuan if I recall.
How do I know? but its a good story.
GS states gold may drop 15%. QE not as friendly to gold as goldbugs thought.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/why-gold-and-silver-hate-easy-money
Everyone has an opinion Bobby!
i only share.
So they are calling for about 1050 or thereabouts. Sounds good to me.
They were right about the “slam dunk” sell call.
yes they were, whereby the koolaid crew was wrong.
Yes they were right about that call. Other good calls this year too. Something to keep in mind.
so then you do you listen to?
I wish I knew what you were asking……
I was talking a couple days ago the technicals saying 15% down is next support.
I just read an article on Kitco that was a load of pure BS.
“Improving European Economy Has More Impact On Gold Than U.S. Dollar – Analyst”
These people talk a load of BS and get paid for it.
The Euro has gone up just a little in the past year. It was $1.20 in August 2012. At gold’s peak near $1800 last September it was about $1.31. Now it is $1.36 and change.
Big deal. So if gold tracks the Euro, which it used to do, gold would be up a touch, a few percent since last year. However it is down 30% at £1245.
Now move to Japan. The XJY Yen index was 129 last Seotember at an interim high after being between 118 and 130 for a couple of years. Now it is 98, down 24%.
In fact, it has just broken down from an almosst perfect bear flag, fomed over this Summer. Conversely, the Nikkei 225 stock index has broken out of a bull flag, because the two are mirror images joined at the hip.
The big fall in the Yen was from Sept 2012 to May 2013. The fall in gold from Sept 2012 to June 2013. Coincidence?
The recent recovery (if you can call it that) in gold coincided with the formation of the bear flag in the Yen and the bull flag in the Nikkei.
Now, if the recent action in the Yen and Nikkei are a predictor, gold is heading for a new low.
See Stockcharts:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$XJY
Note the fall in the Yen in April, just before gold crashed.
Then for XJY in the web URL, substitute GOLD. Spot the difference, if you can. They’re kind of similar.
Take a look at other currencies in mid-April 2013, XEU, XBP, XSF and finally the US dollar index USD. The did nothing. Only the Yen did – and gold too.
And this twit “analyst” says the European recovery is hurting gold? Gimme a break! Gold rsllied with the Euro from 2001-2008 basically and hit trouble when the Euro crisis really started to endanger banks everywhere. The Euro fell at similar times. So why is Euro up and gold down? This guy needs to get out more.
I wonder if the signal is in yet, Gary? One swallow does not make a Summer.
The recent trend. looks unchanged to me, unless gold takes out $1250 in the next 2 days. It has a chance to break out of the recent sloping downtrend and north of 1250 basically right now.
This week I noticed by accident the remarkable similarity between the behaviour of gold and the behaiour of stock of the company CEMIG (US ticker CIG), the Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. in Brazil.
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/gold-compared-to-cemig-stock-uscig.html
I originally saw the chart on Sean Hyman’s long Biblical Money Code infomercial, probably linked from Kitco.
The chart suggests new lows for gold but not vastly lower than $1179, maybe ultimately to the $1000 area, followed by a long grind higher.
This would also agree with the 1980-2000 bear market in gold. Gold fell from $850 to $300 by 1982 but the final low (in 1999!) was only a bit lower than that, at $252.80. The 1974-76 bear phases in gold and silver are also similarish to today but I like the chart of CEMIG as a model right now. Bulls might also take solace that the 1972-79 chart of gold looks like 2000-2011 – if that chart was THE match, the gold will explode soon. However, I somehow doubt it.
I am looking for more charts showing this pattern, hopefully with positive outcomes!
SBD: The more doubters the better. Silverbug Dave when was your purchase of Silver?
SiLver man……………there is no” Biblical Money Code”…….
Nice observations on the Yen, Dave. I had seen that too. It was a new one.
silver,
Charts are pretty worthless for spotting turns. At tops the charts are going to say the market is going up, and at bottoms the charts will be saying lower.
One needs different tools to spot major trend changes.
This is one reason I attach much importance to the money flow numbers. They are one of those tools that can predict a trend change. Combine that with cycles and sentiment and when they all line up it’s often possible to catch turns.
i used to mock the cycles the larry eddelson uses, but he turned out to be correct so far, lets see if his lows come true….the good thing is he sees gold much higher….some day!
Its nice to have the sound working again.
Isn’t Friday First Day Notice (FDN) for taking delvery in exercising a December gold futures contract??
Many people seem to be obsessed now with finding a bottom in gold. I suppose if I were a trader this would be important to me too. But as a long term buy and hold investor it isn’t as important. Don’t get me wrong I would like to know when gold will find a bootom, but I personally feel no one can know. This market has been beat up so bad, and been so surpressed that the whole market is broken down. One minute someone is calling for $1000 gold and the next minute he says we’ve bottomed. Typical handicapper.
Bottom line we are in a bear market until we are not…
As is often the case, James, I agree with your point of view. If one has real faith that precious metals will turn around again and head much higher than it would be fair to say that anytime now is OK to begin accumulating and investing in quality shares again. Certainly the risk is substantially behind us after such tragic declines as have already been seen and given the macro backdrop these appear to be favourable conditions to begin investing in the sector again. I won’t be getting sweaty and excited however as I remain convinced more washing still lies ahead and a period of consolidation is inevitable. Bottom calling is somewhat a waste of time when all that really matters is catching the general zone of the lows. Not many of us are great market timers although I have been lucky in the past so I perhaps enjoy the challenge of trying to nail that sweet spot. Despite my past bearishness though I do agree that the bust cycle will end in time and that there will be some excellent opportunities for those of us who have been waiting. A lot of work needs to be done where sentiments are concerned though before the real movement will materialize. There is no need to rush into buying right now though, no urgency to catch a trend that has not even begun. As I keep pointing out we are definitively inside a bearish pattern and until it show signs of breaking it is just fine to bide your time and await a more certain verdict.
AMEN
EXACTLY HOW I SEE IT BIRD!
THNX
You are most welcome, NYC!
I agree with obsessing over bottoms. Bottoms are rounding tops are spiky. I think ya just got to start nibbling.
And the PM opens down.
Yes Har. We will be retesting the lows and breaking below them in 2014. Nobody who is serious should shed tears about it though. These kinds of bitter declines typically result in fairly spectacular upsides. The cycle demands it be played out to its natural conclusion though and I would be extemely surprised if it ended prematurely before the juniors have been washed out and the sector cleaned up.
there are much better places to be than pms today….there will be plenty of time to buy when they turn, especially if it takes several years or even a decade to happen…we could be dead by then!
Futile at looking at the dollars up and down har. I’ve had people say ya golds today and I say its up $600 from where we first talked about it…
Gary, I have been following you for some time and you have been wrong so many times that I have lost count. I know that if call a bottom enough times that you will one day get it right but that could be a long way off. If your wrong again, please do the right thing and refund your subscribers their money and consider getting real day job.
BINGO !
wish I had a BITCOIN for every wrong call of Gary’s … remember the old $50 loaves of bread by 2010, then 2011, then 2012, 2013 … 10k gold by 2012, then 2013
bottom here, bottom there, bottoms everywhere
anyone can see a bounce here for $120 million GLD buy on weakness , we don’t need Savage, and his “Folks, we have (another) ‘the bottom’ ”
this guy is shameless & a danger to investors
Eagle,
You’ve got to be kidding right? The G man has made one amazing call after another for as long as I’ve been listening to him. I’ve made a boatload of scratch over the last year.
Bruce,
The realistic opportunity for hyperinflation doesn’t come until the dollar’s three year cycle low in 2017. We have another three year cycle low due next year, probably in the fall. That should be at least a semi dollar crisis but not the hyperinflation.
I’ve been very clear about this. Never once have I ever called for $50 bread in 2010 or 2011. It’s just not possible to have hyperinflation until the dollar moves into a three year cycle low and the next two aren’t due till late 2014 and 2017. So 2010 isn’t even remotely a possibility which shows you weren’t really paying attention to what I’ve been saying.
If we are ever going to have hyperinflation its going to happen in 2017. Mark that down in your book and then we can see what happens when we get there. But for now no serious inflation until late 2014, although I think the process is about to begin. All commodities should be putting in final bottoms over the next month or so and start to rise as the dollar begins to move down into that semi crisis next year.
Watch the megaphone topping pattern. When the dollar breaks down out of that formation then the collapse will begin in earnest and it will continue and intensify through the year culminating in at least a semi crisis late next fall.
Yellen is not going to be good for the dollar.
BTW we have serious inflation. Inflation is an increase in the money supply. That increase doesn’t have to flow into everything evenly though. We only consider it inflation when it flows into the commodity markets, but creating a bubble in equities, bonds, and yes bitcoin, is still a symptom of inflation.
The problem is that it’s impossible to force the inflation to stay in those areas we like going up. Sooner or later those sectors become too overvalued and liquidity starts to leak out of overvalued markets and goes into undervalued markets. Which at the moment is commodities.
So sooner or later the inflation will end up in areas that we traditionally view as inflationary and when it does it will start to pressure the economy just like it did in 2008 when oil and the CRB spiked. That BTW was the last semi crisis in the dollar.
Talking about money, I was at the LA Auto Show yesterday and saw a pretty big upbeat crowd of people eyeing, a greatly expanded line of gold plated Porsches and silver lined Audi Cars at big prices. I’m no expert, but maybe the economy doing better than lot of us think, including me. I hope our economy and China’s starts running on eight and silver and platinum will head north.
yep, cali has the dough.
Could someone please comment / help me understand how this guy can be talking about “buying” – after getting completely cleaned out on his options calls and stock purchases earlier this year? Buy with what? As I understand it his newsletter audience has all but left, and a simple look at the internet traffic to his site suggests he’s no more popular than a landing page?
Do you actually think you can make any money from this site info. Its entertainment only. I’ve followed a top manager that is consistent..He sold all commodities a few years ago. Hes buying stuff like this
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ATB.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83025201784&a=325791747&listNum=1
Jack_Tripper: Hate to say but the successful manager I know don’t sit on Blogs. I can’t even get a hold of the guy I own.
Jerry – that’s a very interesting point. I think that some of Al’s contributors are genuinely altruistic. But you’re right about some of the others. I go a lot on how they speak and how seriously they take themselves! A
Money is moving into productive assets. Gold had its day for now.
Bottom bouncing:
Ya maybe a bear rally….
To Gary Savage.
A shift of opinion means “no clue at all” to me. Keep it up!
To (Big) Al.
I miss the old times with Roger Wiegand. Thank God Rick Akerman is still there…
Anna,
I’m not sure what you mean by a shift of opinion. I’ve been very clear. I’ve been on the sidelines for the last two and a half months waiting for the intermediate cycle to bottom. I’ve been expecting a minor bottom at any time (listen to the last interview with Cory). I wasn’t expecting it to be a lasting bottom though and I thought gold would have another leg down. However the money flow signal on Tuesday is saying that this will probably be not only a minor daily cycle bottom, but also a major intermediate bottom.
It’s enough of a signal for me to start putting my capital back to work. However if you prefer to remain on the sidelines or do something else with your capital then by all means do so.
“[…) It’s enough of a signal for me to start putting my capital back to work…”
Gary Savage, you are a great boaster.
You lost me on that one. How is me putting my capital back to work after being on the sidelines boasting???
Trader Rog belongs to a bygone era of optimists Anna. I’d love to get his take on things given how he got his forecasts so wrong! Agree about Rick A
Rick’s approach is definitely unique and valuable. Rog? Not so much…
On March 29, 2013 at 9:38 am,
roger wiegand says:
I am expecting a -38% to -50% broader stocks haircut between Sept 15 and Oct 15th this fall. I think OB will resign under pressures and scandal in Q4 but more lilkely Q1 in 2014. then comes a war. PM’s will make a pile the last 6-8 months of the rally run in 2016-2017. Then the sun rises and we start over. Its just history not the end of the world. I’m a realist – Traderrog
——-
I never agreed with Gary’s call for $1,000, but shifting one’s opinion as new information comes in sounds reasonable to me. Of course, Charles Nenner has been calling for a low in late November for months.
The miners acted very well today with GDX/HUI closing out the month above the June lows (bear trap?). Interestingly and bullishly, the XAU never did go below its June low.
Ya with Rick you may survive. As the Gold Bull commenced more and more people were experts. Then the hammer showed up and revealed that most are not a smart as they think they are.
Without any doubt, the blowoff in this sector is still ahead. It may be 2019 or 2020 when it finally arrives, but there will be great gains along the way.
In both dollar terms and gold terms, the greatest gains for the miners in this cycle happened between late 2000 and late 2003. The action that is still to come will be even better.
Matthew: A distinct possibility..
Elliot wave theory if I recall.
But when free market forces are subverted by gov’ts who can say what happens next. The markets are not base so much on economic fundamentals as gov’t interventions, manipulations, bailouts and of course BS, more BS, and even more BS.
Changing one’s mind is not a problem.
Speaking one’s mind is…when you do it to sell info to subscribers who are desperate for knowledge. IMHO…
Not “desperate for knowledge”, dear James, but for orientation. You can´t get knowledge from a confidence trickster.
Anna, you proved that you have plenty of knowledge long ago.
ditto
Thanks for that. I should look at ZJG more often. Looking at the volume pattern over the last few months on the weekly chart, it looks very much like we are at a major bottom.
Based, in part, on the interest the market is showing in some very speculative juniors lately, I think we will see more than a bounce here.
I think that’s a possibility Matthew. Most indicators are on the bottom.
When this thing sells off hard its usually the end of a panic at least temporarily..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GGN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97346934261&a=325724191&listNum=1
That’s very interesting, thanks again.
GRAZY FUCKERS AMERICA IS GONE ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkQVAb1DbjA 88888888
YOUR COMMENT IS AWAITIG MODERATION !
America is gone and Europe is gone wake up !!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5Xn7u2kD1Y comming yeee !
Al slave labor products GOD LOVE DISS BOMING ORE SLAVERY HAPPY THANKSGIVING !
2013 VIDIOS MORE BEAD !!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaiwU8nCtiA ONLY USA AL SAY !!!!!!!
frankyy ….don’t get the studio dog excited………..
Fukushima BRING IT ON franky. Most humans are idiots. Greed abound. We need a purge….
NEW VIDIO 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwYCiqaGV4s YEEEEEEE !!!!!!!!
happy happy !http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moutUEfqUQ4
All too much franky!!! Is this how we round up a summary of Gary Savage’s insights?
Gary gets a signal – GREAT.
Might this be another ‘signal’? Some guy in Wales threw away his laptop in the summer, the hard drive holding his encrypted bitcoin info and which at the time he took to be worthless. Now it turns out he’s thrown away the equivalent of £4 million, buried it seems under 25000 cubic meters of landfill and earth!
Of course there’s always another reading into this sorry saga like ‘Lay not up for yourselves treasures on earth where moth and rust (landfill and excrement) doth corrupt and destroy’.
C’mon Gary keep the good news coming!