Beginning of the Week thoughts from Gary Savage
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James,
He will not answer that question. Frankly I am tired of exposing Mr. Savage and Al keeping interviewing him as an “expert”. Well….I tried my best.
Here is what I posted to the website on Sept. 3.
“I’m going to start off by exiting 1/3 of metals positions today and hopefully the rest over the week unless this strength starts to fade rapidly. I definitely think one needs to be out before the employment report on Friday. If the cycle hasn’t topped by then that event would be the perfect time for the top to occur.”
Gary, Your real record is here. Again:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14562/individual-gurus/gary-savage-tracking-smart-money/
That report is for the stock market only. And I think we all know my record has been spotless on stocks. So I have no idea how they could possibly come up with a 42% accuracy rating based on my stock market calls.
For heavens sake I called a bottom in Aug when everyone else on here disagreed. I said stocks would go back up and make new highs and maybe even up to 1800. I even called the trend change on June 24th and Oct. 9th the day before they happened.
I called the top on Sept 3 in metals. I called the bottom on Sept. 18 pre FOMC meeting and even exited the morning of Sept. 20 when miners began to fade.
I called the bottom in the dollar almost perfectly. I also predicted what it would do to gold.
I’m not sure how much better you require my calls to be.
Pibe, you do notice that their information is 1.5 years out of date, right?
I believe that 5+ years (2007-2012) is a very good sample to figure out somebody’s performance. Usually in statistics 5 years is more than sufficient to extrapolate somebody’s performance.
Not even close on a 5 year time line either. I called the last bear market in Nov. of 2007 and called the bottom the next day after the final bottom. I have no idea what this website is basing their ratings on but it certainly isn’t my record on stocks.
Pibe – Thanks for the info. He’s hardly an “expert”
But then again I knew this all along and have been trying to warn people as well.
I always thought GS was clear about what he was doing and what he figures could happen.
My concern would be the amount of physical available to purchase at $1000.
But for shares it might be a good idea to wait till then, and there may very well be all the physical anyone could want available at any price anyway.
This comment is for the Gary bashers. I agree with him that if we don’t get the nasty hoped for correction that he is calling for gold could range trade for the next year with no appreciable rise in price. Even though I do not agree with his hoped for 1000 dollar call, it could happen and it might just be a blessing, not a curse, as he does suggest. I personally believe we are going to range trade for the next 12 months. Capped. This is the worse possible outcome though. I believe sub 1300 dollar gold is a good entry point for stackers who are willing to hold the gold coins for 3 years or more.
It might happen sure. 42% accuracy is better than nothing; he might get this one right; who knows. Just do not make trades based on his predictions. You will lose money.
Well James…thank you for your reassurance…. maybe Al will understand that one day and will stop interviewing this so called “expert”. I have already sent him tons of proof that he is not what he claims to be and he keeps saying “I will take it seriously”. Proof of Gary’s contradictions, lies, excuses and poor record was also sent to him by other members. Oh well.
[…] here Written by Gold […]
If we only got interviews from analysts that have good track records we would’t have many interviews on this site. Most of the PM experts have poor track records. In my opinion, if you do not like Gary Savage you should only listen to the interviews you like. You can skip the Gary Savage interviews.
“If we only got interviews from analysts that have good track records we would’t have many interviews on this site.”
Interesting opinion. So an “Expert” is somebody who has a bad tracking record?
Maybe finding somebody more reliable and with better record would be the answer don’t you think?
I firmly believe we have a true expert on this site. We call him the Doc. We need devils advocates to visit as well. It makes for good discussions. When we are talking about the future, anything is possible. Even what Gary is predicting. Me personally? I am not a trader because I am just not risk tolerant. I welcome all points of view.
Anyone who has listened to my interviews knows my record has been almost perfect over the last 6 months. This is a tough crowd if you require better accuracy than that.
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14562/individual-gurus/gary-savage-tracking-smart-money/
Again. I just expose facts and documented proof. Not “blah blah”. If my math is correct 42% accuracy is 58% short from perfection.
Completely ridiculous. There’s no way my stock market calls are even vaguely close to 42%. Anyone who has listened to my interviews knows that I have been virtually perfect when it comes to stocks. I have no idea what this so website is basing their rating on but it certainly isn’t anything even vaguely based on my actual market calls.
“I have no idea what this so website is basing their rating on but it certainly isn’t anything even vaguely based on my actual market calls”
Gary, please stick to the facts. You already talked to them and tried to defend your low performance. The evidence is there.
Gary, I distinctly remember an interview you did with Tekoa De Silva a few months ago where you were saying that you thought we were very close to mania phase in the gold market. Don’t you remember? You quickly cast that aside and now you believe we are going to get a 25% correction. You are a little wishy washy. I love your interviews but you are far from perfect.
Not wishy washy at all. I just recognized what the miners were telling me on Aug. 27th. They were screaming that the manipulation was going to return and that’s exactly what happened. It’s why i exited all precious metals positions on Sept. 3.
Gary has made some good calls guys. None of us is perfect. Not sure where this is all going. On another subject…..my giant turtle has been with me two weeks now. I was telling you before I rescued her from a bar where she had been living for over a decade beside a public toilet on a postage stamp size rock. She is pretty happy here by the looks of it. Munches on my garden and drives my wife crazy because she is eating all the best flowers. This gal has good taste! She has these monster craps though. I was not ready for that. I mean they are at least two kilos but then she is a pretty big turtle. We are looking around for a mate for her now. They tell me she is 50 years and never nested before so this could be interesting. Not sure yet if she will move to where the other turtles are or a male will come here but we sure would like to see a batch of eggs. Cheers. Sorry about going off topic. Got nothing to add about gold today.
Birdman. I wanted to say that the subject of your tortoise is brilliant. Isn’t that the nature of the current pm market? The homely turtle. Slow, but steady. Not predictable. Because you can wake up tomorrow and your tortoise is gone. Where did the tortoise go? I don’t know. Maybe it will return someday. And, you did say that the damn thing takes a huge shit occasionally.
Funny you say that Glen. She moves slow as mollasses and I lose focus remembering where she is but at the end of the day I can never sem to find where she decided to sack out for the night. Sneaky devil. She sleeps almost 16 hours daily and just munches the garden goodies for the other eight. Even the cats don’t sleep 16 hours a day!
I’m not interested in turtles but I know what I do like and that would include a couple of brunette cougar twins wearing red lip gloss and just hanging with me at home or going out for dinner. DT
I really don’t know why more of you guys don’t come to Africa. I was bombarded with marriage proposals the first time. Totally blew my mind. Sheesh…I am not THAT good looking.
Bird, men don’t have to be that good looking, a good personality that listens is more important and when you are married just tell your wife that she doesn’t need to be suspicious. DT
Bird man, I have been to Africa. Most Americans have never left the US. They would not like the lack of amenity’s that exist in the third world. This is actually a plus for you. When the gringo’s invade an area and hang out they drive prices higher and also the community becomes a target for the bandito. Stay cool and stay hidden in Africa. I agree, African woman are nice folks but no better than anywhere else. They are just looking for someone to pay the bills. Everyone is broke in the third world. We might be broke as well when hyperinflation finally arrives.
Hyperinflation might happen in Africa; same as Latin America and developing countries. But it will NOT happen in the US (inflation YES, Hyperinflation NO). The misconception about Hyperinflation happening in the US is not based on current U.S. economic principles. Please read the article about hyperinflation written by Martin Armstrong.
Hyperinflation is indeed a fact in much of Africa. Where I am we are getting double digit inflation year in and year out. It has gone as high as 60% in the past which just means it does not pay to hold cash. Spend the damned stuff as fast as possible. Autos hold value well. So does housing and pretty much anything physical. US dollars are in huge demand. The silver lining is that GDP growth is very high so there are lots of places to park money if you use your head. Can you imagine rates that cause your food, rent and basics to rise not just monthly but sometimes every sngle week. I think they call that hyperinflation because of its notorious compounding effects. My cigarettes jumped in price 5 times in just the last two months and amounted to a 25% increase in that short period of time.
cigarettes Bird?
Bird man. Please strap a camera to your turtles head and film the mating process. then post it so I can view. It will be a lot more interesting then the “Gary” bashing I read now.
TIA
Ha Ha. Guess I could put it on the boys head when he arrives. Yeah, that would be pretty interesting actually. I found out they only mate once a year after the rainy season so it will be a long wait. Fascinating creatures though. This gal eats like a horse. She has mowed quite a chunk of lawn and packs away a cabbage a day plus garden greens. I keep wondering if she misses the loud bar music and club scene though since that was her life before and it is so damn quiet at my place by comparison.
Hey Gary, on another topic. I asked before if you ever climbed the Stawamus Chief. I knew quite a few who used to do that climb. 400 meters vertical. Popular as hell too. Just don’t try it drunk!
I did climb it in Sept when I was there for a couple of weeks.
A credit to you man. I am very impressed. We drove up the back side of the mountain many years ago in the 4X4 but you would never catch me dead trying to do a free climb like some of the guys do. Totally terrifying in my view and possibly much worse than jumping out of planes with a flimsy chute attached to your back. I think I understand you better now to be honest. I tried ice climbing once but am terrified of heights. They held my hand the whole time! The rocks are different though. An exceptional sport.
Mr. Savage, I don’t see it as a “never ending battle between the bulls and the bears” so much as a battle between the Fed and Treasury vs honest money. Also, your best scenario of ~ $1000 sounds like what’s best for those who are already short and want to cover at max profits. So I want if the chief is stirring his own soup???
If Congress keeps raising the debt ceiling, the Fed must print, print, print.
As the Fed prints more, the rest of the world will be looking for an exist strategy out of the dollar because it will be worth less and less..
I’m not short. Just sitting in cash and waiting.
I’m just pointing out that in order to get the rocket launch everyone want’s (me included) then gold is going to have to do something to change the current perception. Right now it’s in no man’s land. Bulls are afraid to hold positions for fear of another surprise premarket attack. Shorts are trying to drive it down, and now they have the dollar rally on their side.
In order to get a big move the shorts need to cover, and cover hard enough to initiate a big rally, one that will generate some real buying in the sector. We also need to get value investors to come into the market in force.
Basically we need either a fundamental change to occur, or for gold to reach a technical level that will trigger a major trend reversal.
We already got the fundamental change when the Fed confirmed no taper. That wasn’t enough to turn the market. So now I think gold has to get down to a technical level that has a chance to reverse the trend. The $1030 level is that level.
Otherwise I think gold is doomed to just drift sideways in this range as bulls and bears continue to fight it out.
Like I said, it’s counter intuitive but in order to get the big rocket launch we’re all looking for the quickest path to that event is for gold to go down to $1000 first.
Gary, when we got the price smash down to 1180 I thought that the shorts would cover and it would clear the way for higher gold prices. That level should have been plenty low enough to allow the shorts room to cover at a profit. Why do we need to repeat the process? If we end up with another correction that brings us down to 1000 that will be counter productive. But, if it happens it is out of our control. Gold will be very hard to source for gold bugs at that price level and premiums will go thru the roof. There is no way you could find an oz to buy at that price where I live. Just not possible.
I thought $1179 would be low enough also but it was pretty clear that a top and exit was manufactured on Aug. 28. The miners confirmed it. Then when the FOMC spike was reversed the very next day it was painfully clear that the manipulation wasn’t done with the metals.
Topic – entertainment:
These are likely the only two people I would watch on CNBC.
Biderman and Santelli
“Q.E. is a zero sum game” (3 minutes)
http://charlesbiderman.com/2013/11/04/biderman-on-cnbc-q-e-is-a-zero-sum-game/
Turtles are nice! I had a turtle when child and it got stolen 🙁
Yep, it is a non-eventful day for the PM market.
Quoting Armstrong Economics:
“People will return to gold ONLY when there is a crisis. The ECM turned down in 2007. Gold did not exceed the 1980 high in nominal terms until 2008. The rally was with the economic decline. You will NOT see another such rally in gold until the current wave of the ECM turns in 2015.75.”
Quoting ShortSideofLong:
“Speculators have been adding exposure towards metals for a few weeks now. Public opinion on alternative currencies like Gold and Silver is now around neutral levels from the depressed levels witnessed during the summer doldrums, as prices found a trough.”
Birdman. I don’t know what kind of turtle you have but I assume it is some kind of land turtle. I am from Florida. We had land turtles back when I was a kid, or tortoises. I used to catch them and put them in my yard. They would hang out for awhile, eating whatever veggy’s they could find, including what I would feed them. Then, they would dig out of the yard. They like to dig tunnels. Now, in Florida, it is against the law to molest them or touch them and the fines etc are quite high. They are also very good to eat and that is also illegal. Something the experts say is that they don’t like to be moved around. They learn their territory and stay in their territory for their entire life. When you move them it screws them up because they are then in new territory that they are not familiar with. I don’t know if this is true. In Florida, folks used to spray paint messages on them and then let them go. I have also seen them crossing roads and cars would stop and blacks would fight over them because they are supposedly very good to eat. I have never tried eating them. Tortoises are cool creatures and I believe that they deserve protection from the spooge that want to destroy them by hunting etc. They are not a good source of meat since they take so long to grow large enough for the pot. Here in Panama I have never seen a land tortoise. Probably because they have been hunted to extinction.
Hi Glen,…yes she is a land turtle. They are pretty common here. The local hotel has dozens in their back gardens and they make the groundskeepers crazy because they have a talent for eating all the expensive plants! Mine is maybe 35 kilos. The cats were terrified when she arrived but I caught one sound asleep atop her shell a few days back. They both like to relax in the same sunny spot it seems. I am still googling and trying to learn more about them and was not aware of the small territory you mention. All I know for sure is she probably belongs with her own kind so we will make sure she gets matched up with a mate once we are sure she is healthy. First time in her life the previous owner said. By the way, this one was painted too. They had covered her shell in blotches of different house paint to make her interesting to the drunks heading to the bar toilet. One of the guests had damaged her shell trying to discover how thick it was so I guess you can say the gal had been abused a bit. Good grief. She is doing well at my house foe now and we really enjoy her company.
Now that you mentioned it…..tortoise is probably the correct word, not turtle.
The ones I remember as a kid were called gopher turtles and they were a very ugly dark but not black color. They live a long time. The gopher does not get that big, maybe 10 Kilo’s. Do they eat them in your area? I bet they do. 35 kilo’s. Thats a lot of meat. Keep an eye on her. Do you have iguana’s. They eat them also. They are a real nuisance to gardeners as they eat all the plants. We don’t have iguana’s in town but out of town they are a pain in the butte. They get about 5 feet long.
No they don’t eat them here. I mentioned to one person that it was done back home and they were repulsed by the thought. These big African tortaoises can live over 200 years I am told (if that is even possible). She will be around munching on gardens long after I am gone the great unknown. And she will be huge in her later days too. We have a lot of frogs and lizards here by the way. Most agricultural areas on the African continent have never been exposed to pesticides, herbicides or fertilizer. Mostly because ag was never industrialized and the people were too poor to afford all the chemicals. Everything I try to grow just comes up with magnificance and then the frogs start popping out of the ground right after the rains. We get them all over the balcony and sometimes find them in the house. Oddly the cats are smart enough not to bother with them too much. I love gardening here. Every seed I throw seems to make a new plant. So unlike Canada.
How are the Panamanian iguanas tasting?
I personally don’t eat iguana’s. I would try them if I had a source. They are not common in town. The Panamanians have destroyed all their forests so we don’t have many critters including tortoises. Almost the entire nation has been deforested to make room for cattle. All the animals have been displaced to make room for important things. Panama is a poster child for the destruction of the planet.
Very depressing. We must all plant some trees before we leave this world.
I have been buying GG last week and TMM which is at bargain prices. Added more Timmins today.
Paul I’m with you on both GG and Timmins, the latter o which I shall buy tomorrow. Best, A
good buy tail your time good luk BUY !
I see somebody liked MTX today it’s up 50%, HM! DT
GG has been a solid and stable company for years and it has good earnings. That’s a good buy long term.
TMM is more like a gamble with a lot of downside risk but can also be very rewarding in a gold bull market (but we are not there yet).
Thanks Pibe, TMM is still being flagged up by Zeal Intelligence as ‘absurdly undervalued with its 5.8 PE’ and where ‘there is no reason an elite mining stock should be so low’.
Mr. Hamilton is a CPA and he knows how to valuate companies but he is awful at timing markets. If you are willing to hold TMM long term it might be a good buy but be aware that its market price will be very very volatile; 30-60% or more down is a possible scenario but it also might be extremely rewarding.
Thanks again for the cautionary words Pibe. Any buying I do is certainly for the long/er term, A
Has anyone noticed that Gary Savage’s interviews bring the most comments? This is because he brings controversy. Gary Savage brings discussion to the site even if sometimes the discussion is about turtles or marrying third world woman. Check the other interviewee’s. Boring. Thanx Gary for bringing us together for a discussion on the markets. You are valueable to this forum. I am also very thankful to Big Al, that he allows this to go on. Very many sites shut down arguments and discussions. They call the nay sayers trolls. Discussion is not allowed. Thanx Big Al!!!!
I don’t know the first thing about Gary Savage’s track record, website, newsletter, or whatever, but Big Al likes to have him here, and bashing of said person is getting tedious and brings the positive experience of this site down a few notches. IMO
I think the site is good Irwin. If you don’t like it you can go to KWN, everything is urgent, impending, shocking, tipping point, awesome, unforgettable, imminent, unforgetable, life changing, etc. Just a bunch of clowns.
If anyone’s a clown at KWN, it’s Eric King. For the most part, the guests are just reporting what they know or think.
Glen, no need to get your knickers in a knot. I wasn’t replying to you, just making my observation in a post which happened to appear under yours.
I reserve the right to hold an opinion and express it whenever I choose.
Well okay Irwin, we have made an exception in your case. You can express you opinion whenever you like. (Just don’t even think about disagreeing with me!)
Agree Irwin. I regret arguing with him in the past. He has done some good work and just keeps coming back like the energizer despite the bashing. That guy has one thick skin is all I can add.
I asked a question you never answered.
I will repeat it then.
when and at what price, and where is it documented that you sold all your positions and have cash?