How about PRETTY PINK swans !!!…HMMMM I like pink.

I stand corrected Listener. Yours is a much better and more accurate term!

Isn’t that a false flag?

Or we could get a huge Coronal Mass Ejection (solar flare) of unexpected intensity which creates both geomegnetic and X-ray storms wiping out virtually all our sattelite communications systems and creating global havoc.

Or maybe the long overdue human pandemic strikes the heart of our urbanized societies wiping out as many as 25% of the world’s inhabitants in just a few short years. Anything could happen Wayne. Most of it is not easily predictable even though the events are inevitable and expected. Those are what I call Black Swans.

Remember that volcano that erupted in Iceland back in 2010? Nobody can even write or pronounce the name of the damn thing but it created haoc. It covered most of Northern Europe in a layer of ash while spewing dust and gasses into the atmosphere and closed most European airspace for weeks.

That was hardly even the real worry such an event could bring on though. Past eruptions in centuries gone by had actually resulted in “The Little Ice Age” that began in the mid 1600’s as the sun was blocked for years due to heightened volcanic activity thus causing widespread failures in agricultural production and famines in Europe and elsewhere.

Keep in mind this is not really ancient history.

Then there are the obvious technological Black Swans that are also somewhat predictable if not even probable given enough time. The accidental triggering of an ICBM and detonation of a nuclear warhead on an adversaries capital for example. Now that is a scary thought and yet we have come quite close to that Armageddon scenario several times as we have learned over the years from released documents. A most recent story was the case of how the US Air Force came within and inch of incinerating the entire Eastern Seaboard when it accidentally dropped an armed nuke from one of its bombers on a training run.

Speaking of which, did the Russians not lose control of some nuclear weapons in the past as their fleet of nuke submarines and their weaponry was being dismantled or had fallen into a bad state of rust and disrepair in the Northern and Baltic ports? We never heard much about that story since but I do recall there was a legitimate worry that terrorists were potentially able to take possession of warheads that some worried could come to the black market.

Cripes, how much more dangerous does it get than that?

On the nuclear front we can never forget Chernobyl either. That incident was so serious that had drastic interventions involving the loss of a significant number of Russian lives not been undertaken, that most of Europe was within days of becoming entirely uninhabitable. The words “epic disaster” were written all over that one.

And then along came Fukushima to teach us how one single Nuclear plant in Japan had the potential to destroy an entire ocean for generations as radioactive contamination swirled across the Pacific carried by normal ocean currents and making all life there potentially unsuitable for human consumption while creating conditions for the extinction of some species in localized waters.

Harks back to past events like the Exxon Valdez and the Gulf Spill as to how serious a single marine accident can be and the major repercussions that evolve from mistakes and accidents that should probably never have happened in the first place.

Between the risks we face by the natural environment (such as earthquakes that can create massive trunami’s and drown whole cities) and those posed by our technologies we cannot ever know when our numbers will come up but one thing has become very clear…..the consequencs are becoming increasingly global events crossing all boundaries and borders and often involving countries where the citizens are no different than innocent bystanders to events they cannot control.

So those are what I consider Black Swans Wayne. Maybe the tragedy will come in the form of an electronic or digital virus that shuts down banking systems everywhere. It could be an attack or an accident. I really don’t know. What is obvious to me though that as we have become more and more dependant on complex technological systems that the odds of an adverse event are increasing.

Where Sovereign debts are concerned I am actually far less concerned. The fact is that at the end of the day anyone can simply repudiate thier obligations and wipe the slate clean. That will not end the world. At this time their is widespread cooperation amongst countries and work is in progress to keep both balance and the status quo intact. That may not last forever though as we see Japan, England and parts of Europe most deeply in debt teetering on the edge of potentially devastating outcomes as insolvency seems to loom in thier futures.

It is likely this century will be as “interesting” as the last. Only this time there are far more people and far more moing parts that complicate all the scenarios imaginable. Perhaps the biggest worry we face is how any one of the potential disastrous events (known and unknown) may result in a serious disruption to the global supply chain that we have all become so dependent upon.

It is our interdependancies on global trade, electronic systems and financial connections that span the four corners of the planet and reliance upon the production of others from such far flung places that creates one of the greatest vulnerabilities for all the worlds most developed societies.

We simply cannot afford another large war that might disrupt the flow of goods and services around the world as one example of the predictable that must not happen again. But we may not even need a war to trigger a massive disruption in any case.

Honestly, I don’t know if it is even possible to prepare for the future and what may come our way in the years ahead. We only know that all complex systems fail in the end and especially so in the case where they are artificial constructs made and operated by people just like ourselves.

Thanks Wayne!

blah blah blah!
all due respect of course

intermediate cycle low???? please stop

Bo Polny & his TA has a very good record. Gary does not. Who do you listen to? The answer is clear.

I have to disagree Gary. Rick Ackerman has been very successful at calling the ups and downs in gold despite any shenanigans that might be happening behind the scenes. Actually he has been exceptionally good and I say that without reservation as I have been following his work for some years now. The guy is one of the best. My view is that any so-called manipulation is not really changing the overarching trend that plays out day in and day out but rather results in periodic aberrations that can still be picked up with technical analysis. If anything, unusual buying or selling only magnify trends that were already in play.

Thanks Al…….Whoops ups sidiaye its a cyclical biblical world……..im getting there folks..bear with me……………..no sorry ive lost the plot…….

Nice. How about icicle, Tony?

More Dylan with a new wave edge.

Guys, notice that gold, silver, and the dollar are up this evening? Since gold and silver are priced in dollars, how is this possible? Simple, the USD index does not measure purchasing power (value), it measures only how the dollar is doing when compared to other currencies (mostly the euro). The single best way to measure what the VALUE of the dollar is, is to look at the gold price –for it is really the dollar price! The dollar has already soared more than 40% since it bottomed against gold two years ago at $1923 per ounce (dollar-holders got a big raise!). At the end of June, 2013, the dollar became massively overbought against gold achieving a weekly RSI of about 80. The last time it achieved such a reading was in January, 1997. Who wouldn’t sell dollars and buy (at least some) gold in light of this 15 year extreme? I have to agree with Franky when he says “buy sissies!”