Two round table discussions on economic and political issues
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1 – We discuss the concept of manipulation in the financial markets with Gary Savage from Smart Money Tracker.
- Segment 2 – We bring in an expert round table, consisting of Chris Temple of the National Investor; Jay Taylor of Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks; and Rob Grey of Exeter Resources. In this segment we discuss the concept of manipulation in the markets.
- Segment 3 – Our round table discusses the ineffective role of government in the financial markets.
- Segment 4 – We wrap up the first hour with our round table participants giving their opinions on how people can protect themselves from financial disaster.
Hour 2:
- Segment 5 – In our second round table, Jeff Deist, Glen Downs, Chief of Staff to Congressman Walter Jones, Big Al and Cory get into political issues starting out with the current standoff between the House and the Senate.
- Segment 6 and 7 – Our round table takes on the subject of The Affordable Healthcare Act.
- Segment 8 – We wrap up the Show with Seattle based Bill Fleckenstein discussing the economy and what he is suggesting to his clients.
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I was short listed in the Nixon Administration for Secretary of the US Treasury. A major article in the New York Times listed me as someone in consideration. I have a plaque from my membership on the Senatorial Economic Advisory Board.
http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/10/28/sobering-up-the-western-world-economy/
Saturday, ZH broke the story that JPMorgan’s secret Manhattan gold vault (the largest vault in the world) was directly across the street, and connected via underground tunnels to the NY Fed, which supposedly houses over 25% of the world’s central bank gold reserves.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/zh-discovers-jpms-largest-gold-vault-in-the-world-is-across-the-street-connected-by-tunnel
Kuhn,Loeb & Co. became Lehman Bros.:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_Brothers
Hi Matt,
Are you still the DA in Smith County, Texas?
Great to have your input on our site..
Good to hear Bill Fleckenstein on your weekend show. But compared to his piece on KWN ‘Gold and what is going to make stocks crater’, he seemed remarkably laid back. Maybe that’s just his style. I don’t know how others feel but I find the passion of someone like Bob Moriarty somehow more persuasive.
Sure enjoy KER; Stop in daily and the Weekend ROCKS!
Many thanks, MNH!
Thanks Silverbug D
Silverbug D. seems like my acknowledgement keeps getting pushed down to the bottom whereas it was in response to yours (now for some reason deleted) over Bill Fleckenstein!
deleted andrew de berry ???? i now the filling ! franky no worry !
Yeah, sometimes the comments move in a funny way. I also find if I put two comments on one after the other, the first comment gets re-posted and I look too talkative! Maybe there is a little bug in the posting program.
like this.
Oh, it didn’t do it this time! It made a liar out of me.
Anyway, HISTORIC CHART ( I think).
It is on stockcharts.com public charts. It’s THE THIN RED LINE (or maybe the thick red line).
Point and Figure chart (very old fashioned, traditional type). Point at it and then go figure!
It shows the top at $1800 in September 2012 and the subsequent bear market in gold. The price is now completely capped by a 45 degree downtrend line and has been since lkast August 2013 (about 5-6 weeks) since price had a high at $1434. Gold is so clearly AT KEY RESISTACE on thisa line and the level or the resistance is falling.
Either it’s going down or it’s going up, folks! 😉
I would think that to break out above this line would be VERY BULLISH, if it happens. Of course, it has to happen sometime because eventually this line will cross zero!
The chart:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24GOLD
… third one down.
Also, a nasty head and shoulders has formed (though Paul Coghlan of Coghlan capital says he often ignores these kind of things because everyone else likes them):
http://1000gold.blogspot.com/2013/10/head-and-shoulders-in-gold-and-gold-at.html
Target is at the June low at $1180. Something that definitely makes me go hmmmmmmmmmmm!
sone MCDONALDS COMMERCIAL
I don’t delete anything, Reverend.
BUY GOLD ! SSISYS !
sone MCDONALS COMMERCIAL !!!
I wasn’t suggesting that YOU did Al….just the system!!
As I have said in the past, I listen to everyonr!
I particularly enjoyed Segs 2 and 5. Continuing brinkmanship inevitably brings that ‘one mis-step’ referred to by Gen D. Post Oct 17 a stock market crash? No-one knows, but one thing’s for sure: That great big black swan’s a’comin.
After spending time at the Casey Summit I am more convinced you are correct.
Always enjoy Jay Talylor telling it as it is.
The man obviously has a grasp on British-US fiat dominance and history.
From one month ago:
“It’s tougher and tougher to find economic gold deposits in safe jurisdictions,” Gilman said. “You see mine supply struggling to keep up with demand long term. That’s a great recipe for higher prices in the longer term.”
> Warren Gilman, 53, is CEO of CEF Holdings Ltd.
> CEF Holdings Ltd is a venture between a company owned by Li Ka-shing and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
> Li Ka-shing, 85, is 11th richest person in the world with net worth of U$27 billion.
> the take away: “Asia’s Richest Man, Li Ka-Shing, looking to make Gold Investments”
I just noticed that Cory already posted the story about Li Ka-shing.
http://www.kereport.com/2013/09/04/asias-richest-man-li-kashing-gold-investments-hedge/
Great interview Gary. You made a lot of good points that I agree with.
but-but-but Fort Knox is empty!
“It’s silly, nothing more than a shiny metal, a substance with little use and little real value, a “barbarous relic,” and the stuff of nothing more than superstition. Only a fool would own any gold in his portfolio.”
“We hear all this skepticism these days about gold. Yet the Treasury itself considers U.S. gold holdings to be a key element in maintaining confidence in the country’s soundness—and the stability of the international financial system.”
“The federal government has about 8,100 metric tonnes of gold, held in places like Fort Knox. At current prices that’s worth about $340 billion. That would only keep the government going for about a month, which tells you how little gold we really have in relation to our commitments.”
“The Treasury says it won’t tap its gold stockpile, even to avoid a default”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-uncle-sam-is-hoarding-gold-2013-10-04
It’s been fortunate for the USA that they went off the Gold Standard (well, the Bretton Woods version) in 1971 because the USA hit Peak Oil at the same time and at the rate of oil imports in recent years (13 million barrels per day, let’s say) and a typical gold:oil price ratio of about 13:1, they would have lost 1,000,000 ounces of gold every day and their 261,000,000 oz (8,100 tonnes) would have been lost in 261 days!
Once the US hit Peak Oil, there was no way that they could remain on the Gold Standard and remain a redeemable reserve currency. Since the US has had long term trade deficits and has de-industrialised to a large extent, there was no chance of settling payment for oil imports in any form of real goods, ONLY in fiat dollars.
The drain of gold and the leasing, etc of recent years from the West is just a kind of distorted form of ‘KIND OF’ gold payment – a remant of the Gold Standard, I would suggest. The price suppression, if it exists, may just be a symptom of dishoarding of western gold under the table to creditor nations. Multiple claims on each ounce of gold merely prolong the situation where the west is ‘KIND OF’ partially paying in gold or gold promises for its systemic trade deficits.
It could be an interesting day when this ‘kind of’ gold part payment is not good enough for the creditors.
The reason the Treasury “says” it won’t tap its gold stockpile is that gold has been long gone by leasing out.
2 cents
I kept saying the previous C-wave top in 2007 but it actually came in March of 2008.
Probably no one noticed. & not many know what a C wave is. (Me included!)
A C-wave is a major leg up in the secular bull market. the first one topped in 2003 at $388.
The second topped in 2004 at $430
Third in 2006 at $725.
Fourth in 2008 at $1030.
And the last one in 2011 at $1923.
Gary gave a great segment here, especially after getting such a slagging off from some of the posters on the forum. He gave a good rationale behind his ideas. If he works out to be right or wrong, hopefully we will see soon. I think he got hit thoughts together and expressed them very well in segment 1.
I kind of agree with him about the hedge funds and the greed, though I think maybe that governments have done a lot in the past to hold down the gold market or to ‘contain’ its rise by selling Western central banks’ gold aggressively in the 1999-2004 period and possibly by other machinations such as leasing over a long period of time.
Frankly, none of us really have a clue how much gold these governments still have. It’s not knowable and probably never will be known.
All we can know is the price action. Price action is really bearish since September 2012 (13 months now) and likely does not need any government to hold down the price; it’s going down because the gigantic excess of long speculators that entered gold in 2009-2011 have exited the market and some have been turning into short sellers.
Just how short they go is the determinant of how low the prrice will spike at the bottom of this cyclical bear market. I think that’s what Gary has said here.
Many traders have merely exited gold as Chris Temple mentioned and have gone to play in to the stock market sandpit instead. Maybe we need to hope that they don’t decide to play the short side of gold and take it down to $700.
There has been a suggestion on KWN that there is an orchestrated sale of ‘cheapened’ gold to China at artifically low prices right now, to appease them in their conversion of US dollars into gold and stop them from dumping all their US Treasury holdings. Maybe – but it all sounds a bit contrived.
That phenomenon of China and other creditor nations’ buying lots of gold at these lower prices is actually akin to a new Gold Standard, converting USD into gold. At present, they are getting a 30-35% discount to the price in late summer 2011 at the top of the gold market. That is a bit like the French exchanging dollars for gold at one ounce per $35 in 1968 and also US citizens’ cashing in their dollars for gold during the bank collapses in the deflation of the early 1930s and getting one ounce for every $20.67.
In both cases, the door was shut and afterwards, the US dollar was devalued. It was shut to US citizens in 1933 in the gold confiscation and it was shut to creditor nations in 15 August 1971 when Nixon closed the international gold window. In both cases, the dollar was then devalued against gold, first from $20.67 to $35 in the mid-1930s and then from $35 to $850 between 1971 and 1980.
There is no way to tell if the door will be closed again and the dollar will then be devalued. If Gary is correct and gold gets taken down before a great bull market mania phase ensures, it is possible that we will not be allowed to participate in the rise in gold. This could be done through selective defaults or confiscations and I think we are seeing this already with cash settlement of various people’s gold accounts, refusal to ship Germany’s gold back and the restrictions and taxes on Indian gold imports and trade, for instance. The winding down of the COMEX gold inventory is another potential sign.
It’s impossible to know who will be the victims of the next gold default and who will be allowed to benefit.
In the previous two instances in the 1930s and 1970s, gold stock investors did fabulously well but will they next time? Some say that the mines might be nationalised next time to turn their ‘deep storage gold’ inthe ground into bullion that goes straight into the government treasury without ever hitting the market.
Maybe there will not be a market in gold at all in which private citizens can participate. The futures market in gold has only existed for just over 40 years. It’s just a blip in history. It can go as quickly as it arrived.
Excellent post S.D.
[]thumbs up[/]
Thanks, Irwin. I have my thinking cap on today! I want to add to my sentence from the above post, with a contoversioal little though process:
“It’s impossible to know who will be the victims of the next gold default and who will be allowed to benefit.”
However, we can see the clear difference in the treatment of China, India and Germany. China is getting lots of gold here. India, arguably still in the British Empire, is restricted in its imports through taxation and other arbitrary laws and Germany, a creditor nation but still a puppet of the Anglo American Empire and an occupied country has basically been told to get stuffed. So we can see the current status and pecking order: China over India over Germany.
Interesting observation!
Interesting commentary Silverbug.
Thank you!
Cheers Al!
[…] here Written by Gold […]
Hi friends : My gold and silver stocks are not working and have poor short term prospects. Oil and Natural gas producers have and are working , and i am making a ton on Sandridge and royalty trusts for oil production. I am holding my gold and silver stocks . I have done well on some insurance company stocks, but i would not rebuy them here as they are mostly selling for high PE ratios now. The gov. bond markets could be damaged if congress does not raise the debt ceiling . There are some food and oil stocks i would buy on and sharp pullbacks. best to all S
Scott, good comments. The PM stocks could have one last down gasp in them. Some of them look weak again and are challenging their lows. I’m glad you’re in Sandridge. I began purchasing SD about 2 months ago and it’s had a nice rise. I believe if you hold it for an investment, you have a chance for a larger rise over the next few years. The bond market has improved recently as I felt it would but based on charts, the longterm rally is coming to an end. When the technicals indicate this rally is coming to an end, I’ll short the market—–the charts seem to say there’s a good possibility the bond market could implode in 2014.
I want to give a slight warning on Sandridge energy.
First a disclaimer. I have not been following it closely, the last couple of years.
However I bought the stock back in 2008, watch it about double, and then drop about 70%. I am not sure about the quality of the management. I remember I bought it after hearing some overly positive comments at an energy conference and feel it was over-hyped. Summary: I am not saying sell; I am saying watch the stock closely.
CFS, in my opinion, management has improved. Through shareholder activism, they shed themselves of Ward who was treating the company as his personal piggy bank just as Chesapeake Energy got rid of McClendon who was doing the same thing. I won’t get into the other measures they’ve focused on but it appears the company is now attentive to the shareholders.
Thanks Scott!
The U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund was established at the Treasury Department by a provision in the Gold Reserve Act of January 31, 1934. 31 U.S.C. § 5117. It was intended as a response to Britain’s Exchange Equalisation Account.[2] The fund began operations in April 1934, financed by $2 billion of the $2.8 billion paper profit the government realized from raising the price of gold to $35 an ounce from $20.67. The act authorized the ESF to use its capital to deal in gold and foreign exchange to STABALIZE THE EXCHANGE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR. The ESF as originally designed was part of the executive branch not subject to legislative oversight.
I totaly agree with Jay, to begin with it was the federal government that was manipulating gold, as the federal reserve has got stronger,the fed and the banks that own it have become more influential.
This goes on, so for myself when I say “the fed” Federal Reserve I am speaking of it AND the banks that own it.
Now, as Jay says, corporations have become powerfull enough to compete with influence along with the banks,oil etc.
So, we now have a facist and police state, the point of this “fiat money game”
is control and it has to be psychopaths that run it.
There is no way a person with the slightist bit of empathy or concience could do the dispicable things they do. (not a good thing for children)
Al was saying Bob said “who cares whos doing it?”
Thats not the point, the point is it needs to stop.
And it will, how it stops is the question. Thus, the argument for Liberty.
Manipulated markets = bye bye Liberty.
BB:
No, the point is that gold (like every asset) can be manipulated up and down (funny that the gold hounds used to say that gold is the one thing the elitists cannot manipulate. In my opinion, it will be the intentional collapse of gold that the globalists will use to anger the so-called patriot groups to get them to rebel – controlled rebellion to help usher in a global government. I believe the “buy gold” crying call is proving to be one massive snare (just my opinion).
bb and co have already remarked on the theme of markets – id est – no markets -only interventions!
Clearly, that’s the case now; While guys like Jay Taylor have over the years established some credibility in touting some friendly Co’s and abolishing others, not so friendly anymore; It’s all just the outcome of intimate research into the companie’s he’s recommending or else blasting.
As I’ve known the guy for a few years, starting at Citi and approving a major loan for Penoles, he started to look into Mex potential.
Let me just say one of his latest “sell” Reco was Coral Gold and his latest buy was Golden Arrow.
As I know both of the co’s and its managers I do feel the guy has some other fish to fry.
Otherwise I feel totally at a loss, as the main governments of this globe are totally taking over; No lies, bail ins, propaganda and insecurity will ever change the populus!
The US has just started something akin to a 4th. REICH!
Propaganda – Obama – or further Keneysian beliefs are demonstrated by the chiefs. No, not the Kenian tribes, the US admin spending their way to Nirvana.
A wise man once said about manipulation:
“This is one of the oldest tricks in the book. As long as one can lay the blame for any mistakes on some mysterious manipulators they never have to take responsibility for any bad calls”
Gary Savage, March 31, 2010
http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.ca/2010/03/manipulation-lets-hope-so.html
Same wise man said:
“Amazingly enough…or maybe it’s not so amazing, every time gold corrects we see the conspiracy theories flying thick and heavy. I’ve asked this question I don’t know how many times and I have yet to receive a logical answer. Now that I think about it I don’t believe I’ve ever received any answer.”
March 29, 2010
http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.ca/2010/03/to-manipulate-or-not-to-manipulate.html
Now same wise man is saying day after day, week after week, that gold is going to be manipulated to $1000, just like EVERY other “expert”.
How can so many “experts” be predicting the same price for a bottom, and have it come true?
Gary is obviously short and/or out of gold altogether at this point along with the other experts, including Rick Rule who says he is in cash now.
Rule said for the last year he was buying up undervalued juniors, but recently said in an interview he is in cash, cash, cash??
http://bullmarketthinking.com/rick-rule-leveraged-gold-longs-are-heading-to-the-sidelines-in-fear-of-an-october-financial-panic/
How did Rick Rule dump all his illiquid miners and go to cash so quickly??
I don’t trust anyone involved in the gold market at this points. Lies an bullsh!t flow freely out of their mouths and none of the other experts who interview them call them on their lies and bullsh!t!
Best thing I ever did was convince my family back in summer 2011 not to touch any PM’s or miners. I wish I took my own advice at the time!
I think Ann Bernhart said to get out of the market a couple years back, I dont remember who but there were a couple people saying to get out of miners and stick with bullion. There have been a few saying to stay away from miners, Nadler comes to mind. So maybe depends who your hearing.
I do understand your point Mike but here they talk miners and bullion, which might be why you hear so much about it on this site.
Government manipulation begins in 1934 I believe, exchange stabalization fund.
FDR? taking gold at 20.67 then revalueing at $35 about, I forget.
Anyway, thats kind of a clue the government manipulats.
The question I think should be, How does anyone not see it?
Nice piece mike trike. Like you I believe the bull-shitters are everywhere! Just have to try and hang onto your instincts and believe that all the psychos and fraudsters will get hoist by their own petard. From my experience it usually comes to pass, although it can be a helluva wait,. Best, A
I think a lot of the other analysts believe what they are saying though. The gold people are not delivering a manipulated message. Despite my argument with Gary last week I give him credit for some smart thinking in a lot of ways. It is interesting he is calling for 1000 gold just now though whereas I am back to bullish until we get near the 1650-1700 level. Following that I see another steep decline coming. We may yet hit my bottom call of 968.00 but it could take awhile to play out. In the meantime I won’t be shorting this current trend though and think it is a mistake to be selling now in anticipation of gold hitting 1000 anytime soon. Got to play this one up first boys. That’s just how the game works. Miners will benefit. No October crash (just tune that crap out).
Ask me how I feel around 1650 and I will tell you to get the hell out again.
Not sure about your October call, Bird.
You should have been at the Casey Summit!
I wish I had been there. I have a lot fo respect for the works those guys do. Maybe fill us in this week on what happened. I gather there is a developing consensus that October could really be a blowout month for stocks related to the debt ceiling if there is not cooperation between the parties. You think they would really push everyone into a crisis?
The entire upcoming Weekend Show was recorded there along with many of the Daily Editorials.
I gotta tell you my friend, it was a truly worthwhile conference and I consider the three days down there very well spent.
Thanks for writing such an eansdto-un-erytasd article on this topic.
Why hasn’t congress asked Helicopter Ben why they can’t repatriate Germaany’s gold on a timely basis?
Is congress afraid of the answer?
Very possibly, Reg!
frr, funny you would say the U.S. begins a 4th reich.
RT reports today
Ecuador’s Correa: Obama’s exceptionalism talk reminiscent of Nazi rhetoric before WWII
Discussions of the debt are often some of the most acrimonious and heated of topics. We know by listening to the publc record though that a lot of the commentary is pure political posturing and theatre as partisan points are scored over the differing positions.
There are also some commenters out there who mostly focus the publics attention on the fear aspects of the problems. Often times they are trying to alert us to what they see as a serious impending danger and they wish to induce change to bring about a solution. Certainly I agree the debt is serious and it is growing larger by the day. Their efforts are therefore laudable even if the strategy to achieve the goal is a little disatasteful because of its emotionally charged methods.
But then there is a third group who are interested in neither the political brinksmanship nor the panicked voices of doom telling us we are about to drown as the ship of state flounders and slowly sinks. That last bunch of people don’t get heard from very often because the work of doing the number crunching does not involve all that much soap or daily drama.
I am talking about the statisticians, mathematicians, economists, accountants, demographers and actuaries behind the scene who run the acid tests and try to make the math work. Those are the folks who just look long and hard at the numbers to see if solutions can be found as problems evolve from a combination of slowly changing demographic trends, modifications to existing programs, tax changes, currency competitiveness and a wide variety of changing inputs including interest rate sensitivity.
Maybe it is because they offer up dry reasoning lacking even a small hint of sarcasm that they don’t gain much attention or noteriety. Or perhaps the pencil pushers and number crunchers really are not all that exciting to begin with! They sure don’t get a lot of airtime by shouting and waving their arms and saying crazy things like “stop worrying, it is not as bad as it looks”!
So anyway, these guys and gals are busy making charts and graphs and punching numbers into spreadshhets that test variables against future expectations. No doubt some of the charts are pretty scary given some of the assumptions that go into them. Other charts warn us ahead of time we need to make changes now or trouble will be coming with a high probability of certainty.
But even high probabilities are not guarantees though. Nothing is that certain. We do know though that changes will eventually have to be made to the retirement age for example and that means-testing is probably a pretty good idea. We also know that if revenues cannot rise then expenditures must fall as a general rule over the very long run.
The pension dilemma does not need to resolve itself in a day though. Indeed, it will run in red ink as the demographic bulge passes through before it will again be showing years of surplus’s provided dollars collected in the future are not reduced by all the people stamping their feet and demanding a rollback in contributions!
Neither does the debt need to be resolved in a day or a year. Certainly it should not be attempted while the economy is in a fragile state although that point seems highly debatable depending on who we listen to speaking and what school of thought they follow.
I happen to think the debt is manageable (which is not the same as saying I approve of how large it has gotten) provided the deficit can be tamed and stronger growth resume over time. Taking a long term view it is clear that revenues must rise as well to meet future expectations of existing programs with the understanding that eventually (we are talking a long way out) annual surpluses will be generated.
You don’t want so much tax that you hurt growth either though.
Obviously the best way out of a large debt is to grow your economy thus minimizing the overall magnitude in proportion to incomes generated. The ratio of debt to GDP is not fixed at any stage and we should make a presumption that more robust economic activity will change that ratio favourably so the debt itself does not seem quite so formidable. Hidden inflation in the meantime is softening the enormity of indebtedness in a gradual way in the background and is especially effective in a low rate environment as a more expedient solution to the very distateful idea of large tax increases (which nobody supports despite the fact they still want the benefits that accrue to them from spending!)
We can’t be afraid of large numbers in the meantime though in the same way we cannot be afraid of a roller coaster reaching its peaks or dropping into valleys, keeping in mind there is a rise and a fall that is somewhat predictable over long periods of time. On the upslope of the roller coaster we do not unexpectedly shoot to the moon anymore than we plow deep into the earth on the downslope killing all the passengers in the car in both scenarios.
I don’t like large debts any better than the next person frankly. In my own case I don’t have any but the downside to that philosophy is there is not leverage available for me (self imposed) to take advantage of new opportunities either. Just a personal choice perhaps but it has as many downsides as upside and honestly I would not recommend it for a younger person with a higher risk profile who might prefer to lever up and participate more fully.
What I hear in the daily discussions about the debt though is mostly posturing, politics, rhetoric and fear. To me, the debt is not such a big deal and innumerable tools are available to tame the accumulations which primarily revolve around a gradual reduction in the annual deficit and spending happening in conjunction with economic expansion and rising revenues.
It is the obvious stuff of course that most eaasily comes to mind. Some tax increases, some modifications of programs to better fit the long term revenue model, a dash of devaluation against the countries running large trade surpluses (or encouragement to get them to strengthen their own) and a little fiscal discipline along with continuing low rates. None of it is all that dramatic really. All of it can be accomplished given enough time. I don’t lose any sleep over the debt burden in any case and probably neiher should any of you.
And a note to Jeff Deist. If you read my original comments you will see that I made no suggestion of printing our way to wealth and prosperity. Not in a hundred years would I suggest that. My argument is simply that unfunded liabilites and promises for the future will be modified if necessary should the deficit not be controlled. That may be political suicide but so are ten thousand other decisions, none of which actully make anyone unelectable at the end of the day. I contend that promises will be broken although it will be incrementally and no single decision will be particularly alarming. Obviously tough decisions must eventually be made. We all know that. What cannot continue indefinately must therefore end at some point. I just hope we never go the way of Japan and that some consensus on debt creation emerges and can be reached by al parties before the point of no return. There is still time in my opinion.
Maybe still time, but I personally don’t think so. Too much really bad stuff out there.
Quite frankly Bird, the US and other country country debts scare the daylights out of me!
Gold and silver is the place to be, of course. Like Eric Sprott says…I dont play in other natural resources, when I am already in “REAL MONEY” with a 5,000 year history behind it! He is in and he is staying in. I for one, js RIGHT BEHIND HIM!
Yah man, gold good. Grunt grunt. Fire good too. Also big sticks. Need more rocks. Them other guys walking! Oh Nooooo! No more tree life. Run run!!!! More gold in next valley. My knuckles hurt!
To each his own, brother. BTW, your humor is too sophistocated for me.
Its only for a laugh Marc. I buy gold and siler too so I am picking on myself as well. We take ourselves too seriously anyway. The rest of the world who peeks in here from time to time just does not get this hobby at all. They wonder why sane people would take a fistful of very good money and spend it to buy other money nobody will accept in transactions. I was talking about the gold standard one day and a friend of mine retorts, “come on, what century do you live in anyway?”. That’s what I mean. You do realize 98% of the non gold owning public think most of us are completely off our rockers and badly in need of some more evolution. The only vindication for the bugs is that gold goes to 10,000 dollars or more one fine day but of course that also will mean the dollar has collapsed and our lives will be utterly miserable all round. I am not in the camp that sees that as a reality. In the meantime however I will drag my knuckles along with the few. Just in case, you know!
Wear padded gloves. I started doing that years ago!
is = am…oops
Oh, BTW, when just – just a small but SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE (amount) of people start to GET IT…and you are already in “it”…..watch what happens to your gold and silver…it WILL shock you….the guys alluded to this -now, do you have the guts and endurance to hang in there – THAT IS THE REAL AND ONLY QUESTION!
Here is a thought, Marc. Check out the chart linked below and decide for yourself if the trend in rising gold has been broken or not. You may seriously want to reconsider holding metals long term after reviewing the implications that are clear:
US House Prices in Gold and Silver – 1963 to 2012
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php
OK…..here is the point. Gold versus housing has reversed sharply from a ratio of 150 ounces for the average home to 250 ounces per home in the last 20 months. The chart reversal is so stark it simply CANNOT be ignored when you consider the resurgence in property.
Now that image should be telling you what investors have rotated into. They have gone out of metals and into homes preferring rental income and property appreciation to just holding inert lumps of metal. The world is not ending. Capital flows show up in these kinds of analysis and should be a warning that very substantial drops in metals still lie ahead long term or B) that home prices are about to go on a hell of a ride up in the coming years or C) a combination of the two will happen.
This exact chart was guidance that told the hedge funds 20 months ago to get the hell out of metals and start buying up as many houses as they could get their hands on before prices took off. They did it too. Rents soared along with home prices in some regions as a result as the excess inventory got mopped up in most major regions of the country.
I actually made the call in January 2012 to flee gold and buy US real estate. It was prescient and timely. Since then I have only viewed metals from the perspective of the opportunity they offered on the short side. Those were 20 terrific months and I cannot be sure it is exactly over yet although we are close to the point where gold should stage a recovery again if the historical chart is anything to use as a guide.
If I am right, gold should see a very healthy rise before once again turning back down on its long term declining trend. It has just reached resistance on the ratio chart I linked and is now set for a upturn in my opinion.
Just remember, if you ride this next rally up don’t forget to use it as a last chance selling opportunity to get the hell out of Dodge and buy yourself a nice house somewhere instead.
A little bird told me.
Fair enough. I actually put a nice part of the families nest egg into more real estate at the very bottom last year here in the beach. It is up INSANELY since then. It really makes me laugh. Yes, as I have told people consistently on this site, as soon as the PM’s gain some resemblance of price discovery I will add to RE and get out of the PM as I see fit. Kinda like Mike Mahoney’s strategy that he discusses in detail in his presentations.
Nice work, man! Congratulations. I don’t hear enough about others who timed that move correctly. So you checked the chart I posted? Hope you are feeling good about it because the trend change is pretty darn clear.
Real estate is not selling and is falling in British Columbia where my family resides.
The market has been completely dead for three years.Very popular area just outside Vancouver and a 45 minute boat ride to Victoria.
Houses and especially properties being offered for sale for up to 40% below assessed values.
This market is dead and ready to implode.
The time to buy a nice house is a metals explosion and economic implosion away yet.
Are you talking Tsawwassen, Matt? This must be the first time I have heard prices are falling that hard there. Of course most of the Lower Mainland has been in a bubble for the past two years. Are you referring to condos or Single Family Homes? Fourty percent below assessed is a shocker. Got any links?
I did check “Vancouver Price Drop” out of curiosity and came up with the following:
http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/10/
But none of these are more than 15% below assessed.
I had the same impression.
Hi Matt,
I had no idea.
I thought it was still a crazy verticle market.
Jay Taylor is right on…….
I like Jay too. Very smart guy. I don’t agree with him about a gold backed currency though.
So you are saying that fiat money is fine?
Absolutely Al. I am definitely NOT in favour of gold backing the currency and never have been. It would be a terrible mistake in my opinion. Thought you knew that was my position already.
No, never discussed that on this forum.
I stil feel that theoriticaly it makes all the sense in the world.
Oh well, we’re still friends.
I guess you forget Al.
I tried to talk about no gold backing saying Bill Still had done the research concerning it.
The issue with no gold backing is an honust government is needed.
Some people were saying they believed a gold backing is needed to restrict printing but an example or two shows thats not true.
Anyway, I asked you to get Bill Still but you had a disagreement? and decided not to continue with him.
It has been talked about before but I didnt know Bird agreed with me, I dont think a gold backing should be used either, but my guess is the powers that be will do it but because it will allow them to fleece the people yet again not because it has merit.
Afternoon bb,
I don’t completely disagree with Bill. I think that he has some good points and perhaps I was mistaken in not having him back on the Show.
Anyway, I don’t personally believe in fiat currency. In reality, so what? All of us are entitled to our own opinions. And, perhaps more importantly, our own opinions can change.
Thanks for your comment.
Hell no. We cannot let a monetary system come between friends, Al. As long as we can still shop when the day is over I suppose we will lie with whatever the future might bring. Seems SDR’s might be in the cards though and that does imply a global reserve with some portion of commodity backing which would be a windfall for countries like the US, Canada, Australia, Russia and Brazil. IE, those who produce enough excess to export to others.
By the way….my bullish position on metals is paying off. Silver was up about 3% a short time ago. Gold doing very handily. I don’t really think Gary is going to get his 1000 dollar gold anytime soon. Wheeeee!
I really don’t either, Bird.
Had dinner with Sarah and Kyle during a layover in Seattle last night. They had some very interesting comments about their recent experiences in Rowanda, Kenya and Tanzania.
They really enjoyed the visit but said they probably wouldn’t live there.
They found the people to be genuinely friendly and were only a bit uncomfortable because of the language barrier.
Very interested with their wildlife observations. Particularly their visit to a group of gorillas in the wild.
bb, Al understands what Bill Still does not. Money (value) comes from the market, not the government. Governments already take what they need overtly (through taxes), so why do you want to give them the power to take even more, covertly, by giving them the control of the issuance of money? This hurts the ignorant majority the most since they do not understand that government policies are the reason for inflation. No amount of “honest government” can make such an inherently dishonest system honest. It is distinctly un-American as it is a collectivist approach that relies on centralized power.
The masses continue to view gold as more risky than dollars(!!!). This is the kind of stupidity that must be overcome.
Centrally planned Banana republic.
Yep.Same as it ever was.
This time the fat and happy people get a turn.
Eric Sprott is about the only perma-bull I can listen to on a regular basis. He doesn’t come across as a brain washed moon-shot zombie; his arguments are based on reason and statistics.
Too many good points in this 15 minute audio to comment on; my main take away is that gold supply has been shrinking and will continue to shrink, while eastern demand is rising.
You will find some of our upcoming dalies, from the Casey event, to be really interesting!
Sure is quiet around here….very weird because (and I don’t say this often) I think that gold is a strong buy in the coming week. I am very bullish on metals right now actually. Where the heck is the choir now that I am singing their tune???
Bird, dont you know gold is a washed up barbourous relic?
People around here have finally caught on.
It cant be “group think” Gold down interest down, no way, not around here,
maybe just a lazy sunday.
Probably right, bb. Just a lazy Sunday. I know the gold hounds are out there. Can’t blame them for not feeling optimistic though given the recent rise fell flat and did not produce the desired result of a nice follow through. I happen to think one is coming though. Short dollars, long gold with an expectation that treasuries take another hit. Equities should fall but not gold miners. We will see.
Convetsations that I had in Tucson lead me to agree. Not sure this is specifically the week, nut do think it will happen sooner rather than later!
Jamie Dimon Resigns From JP Morgan, Says ‘Put Bankers in Jail’
Feb 22, 2013
Jamie Dimon, often cited at the most responsible head of a Wall Street investment bank, reigned as Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase today.
In a blistering letter published this morning in Britian’s Financial News, Dimon says he is tired of working in the “bankrupt moral culture” of finance and called for a criminal investigation into wrongdoing at JP Morgan and other major investment banks.
“For too long I have been a witness to what I consider to be unethical and sometimes even illegal behavior at the highest levels of Wall Street,” the letter reads. “I thought that I could change the system from the inside. But over the past few years I have been proven wrong.
“Despite the concerted effort of myself and my closest staff, the recent losses at our Chief Investment Office and the global LIBOR scandal show that firms such as JP Morgan have simply become too big to manage.
“For that reason I am resigning from my posts as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of JP Morgan Chase effective at noon EST today. And I urge global regulators to introduce new rules seeking to limit the size of scope of the largest international financial institutions.”
Starbuck’s Pequod
Long recognized as a less corrupt institution than competing banks such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays, JP Morgan has come under fire in recent months for a number of trading scandals. Most notably the bank lost over $6 billion on bad derivatives bets in the notorious London Whale fiasco.
But in his resignation letter Dimon did not limit his reasoning to recent events, explaining that he is disgusted by the behavior of investment banks during the financial crisis.
“Over four years has passed since the greatest financial collapse in the history of this nation,” Diamond recounts, “and still no one on Wall Street has been held accountable for the crimes which have been committed.
“Washington says they can’t find one single banker guilty of fraud. I can think of 15 people off the top of my head who should be behind bars.
“Why aren’t more people in jail? If you rob a bank, you go to jail. If a bank robs you, it gets a bailout. We need to end this cycle of impunity on Wall Street. And I am prepared to testify against my fellow bankers if need be.
“I don’t know why I’ve held my nose for so long. Honestly it was probably the money. But I started doing yoga last month, and have been thinking about researching Buddhism. I’m ready to turn over a new leaf, and find something else besides money upon which to base my self-worth and value as a human being. ”
House of Cards
Dimon says he’s not surprised by the lack of inaction in Washington, given the symbiotic nexus of corruption between political actors and big banks.
“Let me explain how this system works,” Dimon writes. “Politicians protect us from competition and criminal prosecution, and in return we give them money to use in their campaigns.
“There’s only one word to describe such an arrangement: bribery. And you know what’s really insane? Its not even illegal. Those idiots in Washington actually write laws regulating the manner in which they would like to be bribed.
“Only $2,000 per person, unless its funneled into a SuperPac or whatever or into a primary fund versus a general election fund…I mean who cares how much goes into which account? Its all just corruption plain and simple. And sadly I have been a part of it.”
Plus Ça Change
Financial equities analyst Ferdinand Pecora says Dimon’s resignation and public rant against Wall Street could change the financial sector, but its impact will likely be limited.
“If even Jamie Dimon is calling for jailing bankers, you would think the FBI and SEC would at least start investigating,” Pecora says. “But they’ve ignored every other clue they’ve gotten so far about financial crime, so I don’t expect things to change.
“Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan…these companies have nothing to fear from the government. Jamie Dimon is just one man. The banks own thousands of lobbyists, congressmen, and government regulators. They’ll be just fine.”
Carter Glass, a political analyst for the Center for American Progress, agrees that Dimon’s cri de coeur won’t change a thing.
“It’s great that someone has finally mustered the courage to take on the banks,” Glass explains. “But we’ve got an election next year in Congress. Our lawmakers aren’t gonna piss off the people who pay their bills.”
Admitting that the chances of affecting change on Wall Street are slim, Dimon writes that he’s already planning for a simpler life.
“I’ll will be retiring to South-East Alaska, where I will run a small salmon fishing operation cum Bikram yoga retreat. If anyone in D.C. is interested in bringing criminal bankers to justice, just give me a call.”
I presume that’s an “onion” article?
Nation Just Wants To Be Safe, Happy, Rich, Comfortable, Entertained At All Times 2:14
http://www.theonion.com/video/nation-just-wants-to-be-safe-happy-rich-comfortabl,33336/
That is one of the most interesting things I have read in a long time.
From 30,000 feet I have done some reading on this after making my comment.
Seems to be a bunch of opinions from somewhat uncredible sources.
Time for Jamie to slip on a banana peel.
Isn’t that so obvious when management loses control the few at the top will slip away in a last ditch effort to save themselves as if Jamie Dimon had no culpability, only a brain dead zombie would believe that somebody who could climb such a ladder wanted to be reformer. That sort of an institution can only thrive when the leaders allow it to go on. DT
Pretty much my impression also, Machine Gun!
What happens to gold when printing is increased to 125 billion a month from 85 billion?
Hi bb, soon The Asians won’t want The US dollar instead they will demand hard assets in exchange for there manufactured items.
Obviously the more money they keystroke the more inflation they will have, until the interest rates start to really jump and the system fails then it will be deflationary in my opinion.
There are many fiat governments that have no gold bullion stored in a central bank, ie: CANADA AND ARGENTINA. and most only very little. DT
I understand the no gold scenario, but the governments have the option of backing their currency with resources in the ground.
Hay, wait a minute, isnt that a Federal Reserve manuver?
Isnt that what all the debt eventualy brings about?
Isnt that how the federal reserve ends up owning entire nations?
Well, no problem really, we will just back our currency with the our resources.
What do we care who actually owns resources, not like I will ever own them.
Gotta be someone elses issue. lol
I wonder if anyone other than Ron Paul or Bill Still and the like will ever catch on?
Canada does not need gold as long as it has energy, DT. Crude substitues for gold very nicely actually. All that gold really represents in any case is a countries ability to meet its obligations to other countries in a form other than it’s own currency. Wheat also does the trick as does copper, uranium, nickel, potash and iron ores. I think the decision was made long ago that gold itself was not required of the Bank of Canada. Obviously it has not hurt the country insofar as its membership in the G7. Furthermore the Canadian Dollar was recently welcomed along with Australia as one of the worlds reserve currencies. Not a bad trick when you have no gold but it makes sense if you are resource rich and most of the worlds major gold miners elicit from your country.
On the issue of Asian demand for hard assets in exchange for manufactured goods I think you have to remember who is the customer (buyer) and who is the seller. In other words, who has the leverage to make the demands. I will sugest it is not the seller who is now swimming in excess capacity while losing its competitive edge and is up against a host of alternate competitors from around the globe including India, Mexico, Brazil, Europe etcetera.
Hi Bird Man, if you read my post you would see on line one that I did mention hard assets. DT
Yeah. I was saying that they NEED hard assets in the form of resources to feed their manufacturing empire and development program. The whole model they run on cannot be sustained without massive inputs from across the globe. So this is a vulnerability for a country that is not endowed with resources in proportion to the size of their population and the voracious demands of the productive sector. Thus, they are not therefore in the bargaining position with regards to manufactures you might imagine as capacity can readily move across the globe to even lower costs jurisdictions. This is one reason they have been so aggressive setting up shop in Africa as far as I can see. The writing is on the wall where closer proximity to material inputs and cheaper labour are concerned.
Your preaching to the choir Birdman. DT
Sorry about that DT. I must have misunderstood. Happens all the time.
For a nice summary of that has happened in the world economy over the last decade see:
http://news.yahoo.com/ap-impact-families-hoard-cash-5-yrs-crisis-042042926.html
don’t be fooled youtube ( ( ( Nancy pelosi signing onto AGENDA 21 ) ) ) ! Day now all day doing !
fukushima boys !!! danger danger RADIATION !!! luke diss ( NUKEFREE.ORG ) !!!
al jazeera movie ( the child miners of meghalaya ) !
Well….I never get on these things but maybe its time. Firstly Bird Man makes a lot of sense. I bought into PMs in 2000. I manage to make a buck or 2 then the crash occurred. And thus another meltdown again in shares. I bought into Moriarty’s theory a decade + ago and still waiting foolishly. Not really…But I’m out a shit load of coin from buying Bobs shooting stars. If your not the best of the best and can stand losing a s##t load stay in real estate that has good cash flow and not with a big leaver. Here in Canada we are having a tough spot but not my commercial REAL that I sold its forever rocking. I’m far poor buying into the PMs and listening to Bobs doom and gloom. Maybe we move into a mania like I always thought and my ass is saved!? Help me out here Bird 🙂
Let me make a comment Mr. Idiot (which I will bet you are not!)
First of all, I diversify and then diversify again. Better than meds to help me sleep.
Secondly, we have gold and silver as a portion of our portfolio because I simply feel good about it.
Thirdly, do I put all our capital into “shooting stars”? Absolutely not! Why would anyone do that?
Fourthly, we still have about 25% in conventional stock markets.
Lastly, we have at least another 25% in real estate.
For us to get really hurt, the world simply has to come to an end!
Don’t take this as investment advice as it is not.
VI, maybe depends who we hear, James Turk recomends just saving in gold, a percentage on the same day every month, forget the price.
Jim Rickards suggests 5% gold up to 20% for an AGRESSIVE person, but 5% is about all most people would need, purchased monthly, too easy.
Investment total of say 100k would mean 5k gold bought over months, 4-5 onces, how much gamble is there in that?
Shares, are a completly differant animal, “make the trend your friend” and research it youself if you have the time and roll the dice.
Kinda like owning a whitwater rafting company, lotsa fun when it all works out.
I cannot recommend most Canadian real estate, VI. Some looks to be in a bubble like Vancouver and Toronto. The rest looks to me vastly overpriced. I was only referring to US real estate in my comments where there was terrific value up until a year ago. If you asked me what I am doing I would tell you firstly I don’t subscribe to any service nor accept anyone elses advise. I just use my own head, do the research before investing and trust in my own instincts before all others. The other thing I do is avoid the gloom sites and guys who keep saying the sky is falling. If they are correct then investing will be the least of our worries!
Correct Bird, absolutely the least of our worries!
Al, yes our opinions change, I thougt or hoped they changed for the better as we became wiser, or maybe just as we get older.
@ Mathew Your saying Al understands what Bill Still does not, money comes from the market, I figure gold is money,prefered currency might comes from a market. But the currency used is Generally enforced by edict or fiat.
Your saying that is a disdvantage that our government issues the currency, maybe there are disadvantages, but surley it is a better option in as much as we could deal with the challenges of it better, than giving the unbelievable power to a private bank.
Surley we can see the errors of our ways by now?
I mean, how much blood has to spill to see it?
The Federal Reserve ARE the moneychangers we have been warned about.
Anyway, I think it would be an idea to have a round table discussion with say , Bill Still, Jim Rickards,, Jim Grant, Maybe Max Keiser, James Turk how about Paul Craig Roberts or Ron Paul?
A discussion properly moderated could actually be revealing I think.
Give the opportunity to Bill Still to defend his position, Lets find out if there is a difinitive answer or does the debate just go in circles.
I bet Im not the only one that would love to hear that discussion.
Fair enough. I will set something up.
That would be excellent, geez I can see the opinions flying. lol
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Jim Sinclair has stated that the Fed and JPM’s NY gold vaults are interlinked.
As he was on the short list for US Secretary Treasurer he may be worth listening to.
Here is a Zero Hedge article that explores that possibility:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/why-jpmorgans-gold-vault-largest-world-located-next-new-york-fed
Morgan is one of two entities representing Rothschild’s interests and the Fed /Morgan/Kuhn,Loeb and Co. run the show.
http://land.netonecom.net/tlp/ref/federal_reserve.shtml