With little support for gold Gary Savage continues to wait for $1,030 gold
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Gary Savage sticks by his $1,030 gold price call. The conventional markets are continuing to get hit as well as the dollar but instead of gold and silver going up they are slightly down.
Nice chart. Is 79 your target for the low in the dollar?
I’m expecting a bottom in the dollar once the debt ceiling is resolved. Probably somewhere around 78.90-79.20
Gary’s comments are proving to be pretty much spot on in the last few weeks.
Gold stocks are rolling over on the indexes and in some cases individually – the GDX and GDXJ have head and shoulders breakdowns, it appears to me. S&P500 is weakening. US Dollar looks to have resistance now under 80. Gold is flat as a pancake.
The only reprieve for gold would be if the USDX fails to retake 80, fails at support at 78ish and startes a downmove towards 70 ans makes a new low bwlow 71. Syria and Snowden might have dented confidence in US leadership. It might take a while to sink in.
It is really weird that the dollar has been so weak. Since 2003 we have had strong dollar = weak markets, or weak dollar = strong markets. This looks more like 2001. (By markets I mean stocks and commodities mainly – and many bonds, except short term Treasuries).
Bob Hoye on Howestreet.com sees the possibility of credit spreads widening and gold:silver ratio going up for another dose of credit distress – but we are not seeing the dollar pop up as it ‘should’.
[…] here Written by Gold […]
Half cycle low…..half cycle low….half cycle low……
BLAH BLAH BLAH, Not asking you what that is supposed to mean anymore Gary. Waste of everyones time.
Obviously even you don’t know what you mean since 4 other people have acsked and you never answer……same thing with “Intermediate Cycle Low”. All just a pile of double talk and fluff.
I tried to answer but for what ever reason the comment wouldn’t post.
Rather than go into a long dissertation on cycle theory I’ll just offer everyone a free week to the premium newsletter. You can go to the terminology document and learn all about cycles.
Anyone who wants to take the free week send me an email to garysavage@cox.net
No Sh*t Gary. You tried but it did not post. Now you want me to go to your site to get an answer!! HaHaHaHa. That is the best you can offer after blithering your secret coded nonsense for weeks on end? Count me out buddy. I really don’t care what you have to say after today if you can’t do better for the listening audience. A MINIMUM expectation of a radio show is that listeners understand what you are talking about.
Take it or leave it. It makes no difference to me.
You are done as far as I am concerned. Bye Bye.
The offer will be good for today only. Allow me an hour or two to respond to emails as I won’t be in the office all day.
I will shoot myself in the head before I go to your site, pal.
Gary, never mind the Bird Man. He forgets to take his meds quite often. Let’s hope he remembered to put on his helmet.
So you endorse Gary. Please tell us more.
It’s not that I endorse Gary, it’s that I do not endorse your extreme and unwarranted rudeness. I do not know about his past recommendations, but I have considered plenty of his work to be good (but I disagree that we will see $1000). Maybe his technical work is better than his advice on “how to play it?” I do not know, but I look at the works of many people and consider all the opinions when coming to my own conclusions. Some are obviously better than others.
Please review your own comments with regard to hostility and rudeness.
My rudeness toward you has always been in response to yours toward me, or others. Our recent truce was broken by you over a week ago. You can’t tolerate different views for very long.
Does not mean anything it is pure bs. This guy has NO idea about serious technical analysis nor fundamentals. Having said that I also believe that gold is going down but for different reasons.
Agree Pibe.
Weren’t you saying you were going long GDX a couple of weeks ago based on my bearish stance? How did that work out for you? Must have been based on an extensive knowledge of the right way to use technicals I guess.
Really? Do you really want to go there? And talk about your pathetic past record for the past 2.5 years? And your arrogance and denial? Really want to go there? I am an ex-subscriber pal I know who you really are. Because I will make you look like…. well….who you really are. Are you ready for this? Are you sure? Bring it on!
Chris Powell mentions in the interview I posted the link to that he doesnt understand how TA works as the market is controlled.
DO NOT EVEN attempt to buy or get a free subscription from GARY; trust me he is only a salesman; all he is trying to do is making money out of selling his misguided “analysis”. I will repeat it again: You are a gold bull? Just buy physical gold and storage it and forget about it. But DO NOT TRY TO TRADE this market (specially following Gary’s advice) YOU WILL LOSE MONEY EVEN IN A BULL MARKET!!!. I am talking as a long time ex-subscriber and I can provide proof of what I am saying. Thanks!
He is a true genius as he keeps coming back on the show and has developed a bad reputation along with a long list of loyal followers who now know his analysis stinks along with his self serving agenda. Seriously….who goes on a show week after week and takes so much public criticism without saying to himself “Gee, maybe this is hurting my business a little bit”. Talk about brain dead.
I’ve been very clear in that I think one should be on the sidelines right now. How does one lose money on the sidelines? By following that advice traders would have saved themselves a 17% draw down in the miners and an 8% draw down in gold.
I’m not sure how one could possibly construe that as bad advice.
In Aug. I told everyone that stocks would bottom and make at least marginal new highs. At the time I was criticized routinely by everyone including both Pibe and Birdman. As it turns out the market did rally to make new highs.
Again how is that bad advice?
Nobody cares what you say, Gary. Is that not obvious?
Multipla escolha para os leirotes do blog.Escolha a melhor alternativa para 2012 (inflae7e3o e crescimento)A)5,5% e 2%, com presidente do BC sob credticas por descaso com inflae7e3o e pe9ssima comunicae7e3o com o mercado;B)4,5% e 0,5%, presidente do BC demitido por excesso de ortodoxia.No final de 2013 teremos, se a China nos der a chance, o cre9dito andando sem o peso da inadimpleancia e o Mantega ininterruptamente fazendo das dele (tem que sempre coloce1-lo no modelo!). E aed o BC vai ter que mudar de lado, tirar a roupinha de super-herf3i e virar o Lee Van Cleef. Tombini funcionou muito bem como Clint, papel mais fe1cil…Maradona
FICO COM O ANONYMOUS DE 3 de junho de 2012 21:13 Reply Diria 1,7%, sf3 porque acaba em nuremo primo. Mas dada a disposie7e3o do governo de intervir na economia e “acelerar” o crescimento vamos acabar com algo prf3ximo de 0,9%,QUANTO A TOMBINI ESTAR CERTO DE TER BAIXADO A SELIC, UM AVISO: O ciclo ainda ne3o terminou!
On June 28th, on this show I said it looked like the metals had bottomed and that we were due for a big rally. The metals did bottom on that day and miners rallied 40% in a little over 2 months. I got my subs out on Sept. 3 at almost the exact top.
Again I don’t see how this is bad advice?
You want a Gold Star? What is a haf cycle low supposed to mean, loser?
Seriously. Stop being a jerk and just answer the simple question.
Stocks cycle from trough to trough on average about every 35-40 days. Usually at about day 20-25 stocks will put in a minor correction that I call the half cycle low.
Matthew, subscribe to his service and you will understand why Gary is full of crap. Regardless of the “half cycle” definition. It happens that we agree on gold going lower but for totally different reasons. I already explained my reasons to you (the magnet macro scenario) Don’t buy Gary’s cycle theory it is pure nonsense.
Pibe, I don’t pay for trading advice anyway. I don’t have an opinion about your experience with Gary. I know very little about his work. You seem logical and objective to me.
Everything is cyclical, Bird. Cycles are extremely important. You should know this by now.
The question was not about cycles, Matthew. The question referred to Gary’s defiinition and use of the the term “half cycle lows”. Try to stay awake in class, would you. The girls are listening and you will go home lonely as usual.
“Half cycle low” is kinda self-explanatory, don’t ya think?
No Matthew, it is not self-explanatory.
You want to look at Mr. Savage records? First do not trust his website because he has been deleting his bad calls. Here is a site that was gathering the information before being deleted: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14562/individual-gurus/gary-savage-tracking-smart-money/
Second: I am an ex subscriber and Gary has the tendency to use isolated good calls and quotes to portrait himself as a “genius” and an “I told you so” guy. You can also ask a reputable technical and economic analyst who really has the proper background and education Mr. Tiho from shortsideoflong. He provides a really valuable and seriously technical FREE report. Please ask him about Gary’s accuracy, knowledge, background and business practices. I also have a degree in economics myself and a masters in psychology that I apply to the markets and I have been invested in the markets since 2002; Gary if you really want to have a debate with me I am willing to do it. No problem.
Absolutely untrue. Every single report I’ve ever published is right there in the archives for everyone to read. I see now that Pibe is Tiho.
One can either listen to two emotional trolls or you can take a free offer and find out the truth for yourself.
Time for me to head out. It’s beautiful day in Vegas and I’m going to go enjoy it.
Emotional Trolls? Is that really your answer? Don;t make me spit up coffee!
He he……yup….that’s the kind of guy he is. Now you are having a glimpse of why so many people are angry at him.
Pibe: So far you and Bird are the only ones squaking. In my opinion Gary has responded in a rationale way to insults from the two of you. Not the way to communicate or debate. I don’t use Gary’s or any service but I am influenced by the way the posts are conveyed. Bird is a little rough around the beak but he appears knowledgeable and experienced. Just needs to lighten up a bit. No disrespect intended. Cheers!!
No problem Gator. Getting a straight answer from Gary today was like pulling teeth froma chicken though. I just don’t appreciate being bee-essed with mealy mouthed wordsmithing. Either he talks his book and explains or he does not get my time.
Thanks Gator!
He he…I am not Tiho man!! My name is Marcelo; look at your database I am an ex-subscriber. You are really pathetic. You want to know who I really am? Let’s do a debate! I can send you a picture if you want and you can hear my voice! Or better yet let’s do a public video conference…I don’t care!! You are wrong again!!! Hehe…you are just…well….you are soooo Gary!
BEFORE YOU CHICKEN OUT LET ME WARN PEOPLE AGAIN ABOUT NOT TAKING YOUR BEFORE GARY CHICKENS OUT LET ME WARN PEOPLE AGAIN ABOUT NOT TAKING GARY’S “OFFER”. I AM WILLING TO PROVIDE SERIOUS PAST RECORDS ABOUT GARY’S PERFORMANCE. JUST ASK ME. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT PROFITING OUT OF THIS NOR MAKING ANY MONEY I JUST WANT TO WARN PEOPLE ABOUT THIS GUY.
“OFFER”. I AM WILLING TO PROVIDE SERIOUS PAST RECORDS ABOUT GARY’S PERFORMANCE. JUST ASK ME. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
Crazy capital letters don’t help Pibe!
True! Sorry about that. How do I delete that?
I LOVE YOU BIRD MAN!
I love you too, man!
I kinda think the fighting is silly myself but what the heck, it can be funny at times.
I would just like to know somthing,
PIBE, if you have a degree in economics and psychology why use a service?
Maybe thats not a fair question tho, I dont know, I have met people that were “trained” financial advisers that didnt know what money is, so, I really dont know what is taught in schools and thats why I dont know if its a fair question or not.
Also, Jim Rickards says gold hasnt been taught at the university level of economics for 2 generations, so I honustly dont have a clue.
Having degrees does not mean you know better but sometimes it gives you an edge and i am always trying to keep educating myself. Besides I am actually ashamed to admit that I have been conned by a rock climber (i.e Gary). So there you go, having degrees does not make me better than anybody else.
Well if gold does fall to $1050 or even double bottoms at $1180, two people are going to look smart: Gary and Mr Goldman Sachs.
Having degrees does not mean you know better but sometimes it gives you an edge and i am always trying to keep educating myself. Besides I am actually ashamed to admit that I have been conned by a rock climber (i.e Gary). So there you go, having degrees does not make me better than anybody else.
Wow Gary sure can produce fireworks. Pibes 1 and 2 clearly can’t stand the guy; BirdMan threatens to shoot himself if he addressed Gary any further, only to add a string of new ‘challenges. Or as Matthew and I know to our cost Bird Man’s invective can be out of all proportion to any alleged ‘rudeness’ on our part. bb thinks that having a college degree should afford us greater wisdom. Well there’s not one of us whether we’ve been to university or not who’ve not been conned.
One thing about this insane correction is that it’s flushing out many experts, who jump onto a different perch every time the mood music changes. I remember with affection one Roger Wiegand, whose optimism kept me buoyed up for months until Trader Rog chose to leave this site, purportedly to concentrate on his own.
I smile along with all you guys, perhaps more with Birdman than anyone who one moment extols the joys and freedom of all stress by living in Africa only to come roaring back because some guy what – 5/6000 miles away gets under his skin?
Chill out guys. this f…ing correction’s getting to all of us. But let’s all join hands, sit around some imaginary camp fire and sing Kumbya with Birdman.
Shall we pray together?
Dear Jesus…..please make gold go higher so my wife won’t call me a fool anymore!
Ha Ha Ha!!!
By the way Andy….ever notice I stay on topic and discuss the points directly whereas you just get personal with no obvious point other than inserting non-essential miscellaneous insults? You are such a girl. Cripes, no better than Mathew. You guys both get pillows for Christmas. Enjoy!
Bird, will Al let u do a segment? that would be great
Anytime nyc!
Amen!
And Amen to you too Pibe. Jesus loves you better if you are not smitten by greed!
I do appreciate this particular comment, Bird!
I’ll tell you and all that I pray a lot and I have never prayed for anything as mundane as more money. Happiness, understanding, acceptance, etc. Yes. Money never!
That makes two of us Al. Good health, friends, family, happiness and a sense of well being the top for me. I am thankful for all lifes blessings and the gifts I have had along the way. There should always be time to reflect and be grateful for all the important things in life but sometimes I go astray. Human nature I suppose.
I had exactly the same thought driving to the airport this morning!
How about we all pray that God shines some light on diverse wieghts and measures in the worlds banking systems and exposes decptions there…..??
You got a deal from me, MNH
This is normally a pleasant and polite place to read. But the vicious diatribe from two supposedly mature, educated men, birdman and pibe, is pretty unedifying. We can all disagree without resorting to the playground lol.
I am not mature. Please stop making up new information.
Amen karl345345! Thank you!
LOL birdman. Maybe the african sun is getting to you, or more likely, you are sitting on some trading losses and your nasty side is coming out.
Nope. No losses this year. Caught the bond decline, the recent fall in Crude, a few sweet drops in gold and some others. The sun really improves my complexion. The gals say I look great on the horse too!
Seriously Africa? Wow men!!! Are chicks hot over there?
The women are so hot you could cry.
I wish I was 21 again.
Really? That good? 21 again? mmmmm…well I guess you can always use some help (i.e sildenafil citrate). You are a lucky men!
I knew my question was going to get taken wrongly.
Andrew, I was not implying an education produces wisdom. I dont know what is taught at university level economics, that it. Plus I thought with psychology maybe a person would understand “herd thinking” “mass psychology” maybe even as it applys to markets.
Pibe I understand being “taken in”. I just got “taken” by a woman saying she was being treated for cancer.
And as far as investment services I would think people use them as they generally make their money concentrating on their business whatever that is. Thats why they have the money to invest and all, and they dont have the time to research etc.
I just thought studying economics in particular might give the kind of info as not to require an investment service.
Nah bb most universities are full of lunatics!
By the way bb sorry to hear of your misfortune, A
Well…..that depends on the major!!! I have been there!! hehe!!
Yes sorry bb about that. It is people like that who makes you a “non-believer”
As I said it gives you an edge. For example; you have a better understanding of the big picture (i.e. macroeconomics, situation in Europe and fundamentals) but when it comes to trading….markets are more emotional than rational but I still believe that fundamentals will prevail in the long term. That’s why it is almost impossible trying to predict the short to medium term market movements unless you have insider’s info. You might have an edge by using technical analysis but that’s pretty much it. So when somebody tells you that he can use “cycles” to predict the short to medium term market movements he is pretty much lying to you.
This site is becoming more and more interesting with the differences in opinion. I don’t even care what the topic is anymore…I just like to read the comments now.
It’s like a soap opera.
A soap opera, often referred to simply as a soap, is a serial drama, on television or radio, that features multiple related story lines dealing with the lives of multiple characters. The stories in these series typically focus heavily on emotional relationships to the point of melodrama.
Timothy, I gotta tell you man, I really appreciate the differences of opinion. They are what make me think!
I’m a big Forex Kong fan as he’s navigated these markets very well, offering sound advice to those in question, and also read that he as well saw things quite differently than this Gary.
His information is free – and I don’t think he’s gay.
Agree Timothy – this site’s one hell of a soap! I’ve not laughed so much in years. I guess we’ve got Gary and Cory to thank for this session. If Bird Man’s enjoying the peace and tranquillity of Africa God knows what he’d be like if he ever got worked up!!
Best to all,, Andrew
Bird Man goes out of his way to stir things up in a personal way, that is trailer trash thinking. DT
No Machine Gun, it is a bit more sophisticated and thought provoking that that!
I disagree. DT is right.
DT is right Al. It’s funny as a diversion but long term it’s infantile, A
Crescimento baixo na era tucana era inmecpoteancia, agora que a quadrilha este1 no poder e9 culpa dos holandeses de olhos azuis que fazem besteira, o paeds deles entra em crise e diminui o nosso crescimento por tabela!!!! Esses holandeses se3o safados mesmo viu….. No mais, o Anf4nimo le1 em cima falou uma coisa interessante sobre o BC ter ”acertado” no seu cene1rio de piora e ter antecipado o estimulo. BC ne3o e9 futurf3logo e nem tem meta de crescimento, o discricionarismo que o sistema de IT abre margem e9 mais para acomodar choques que se dissipare3o no me9dio-prazo sem ter que subir muito a taxa be1sica, ne3o para fazer alegria dos governantes. Mesmo assim, o Tombini sempre criticou muito o Meirelles por ne3o ter se antecipado em 2008 e este1 pelo menos sendo coerente, resta saber como ele vai se comportar na e9poca da bonane7a econf4mica. O que preocupa na verdade e9 o discurso da presidentA e do espantalho da fazenda, que falam ”nf3s vamos reduzir a taxa”, ”2% reais”, nego te1 brincando com as expectativas, quando elas virarem eu ne3o quero nem ver o caos.
O Banco Central acaba de revisar a sua projee7e3o para o cmescirento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do Paeds em 2012 de 3,5% para 2,5%.Revise3o nessa propore7e3o ne3o e9 revise3o: – e9 corree7e3o de erro de ce1lculo. SE foi erro doloso ou culposo, aed eu deixo para os economistas de plante3o … ehehheE viva o nosso Brasil-socialista-intervencionista…
I have asked myself that same question, Reverend!
Ha Ha. You should see me stressed, Andrew!
Gotta be a real circus, Bird!
day control nuclear to ! yo now (
Not sure if gold will go down to 1000 but if goes down in the 1200 range again I’m buying more for if it cost that much to get it out of the ground than in my opinion it’s a good value.
BTW has anyone noticed what the dollar is doing? It’s at a 2 year low and it’s not to far away from a level we haven’t seen in decades or ever. Yet Gold is not reacting that much to this. How much lower does the dollar have to go before it starts getting a bit scary?
I say “soon” cameronlego.
Here is the chart showing gold against the dollar. The move into a final intermediate low in the dollar should be the trigger for gold to rally hard. It appears gold is again being contained like it was twice this year. You can see the damage that followed once the dollar bottomed and rallied.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p67666944780&a=311934258&listNum=1