Today we start with Gary Savage
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[…] Daily commentary with Al Korelin Written by Gold Scents […]
Get ready for another april like plunge in Gold.
This coming fall and winter will be loooong and painful for all the goldbugs out there.
I, for one, cannot wait to see gold trading around $1000
I said it.
Say it ain’t so Paul…..
http://www.palisadecapitalcorp.com/Palisade_Capital/Palisade_Radio.html
I disagree with Mr. van Eeden.
PVE has been a bear for about 5 or 6 years now.
Al – you keep beating the same drum a out fundamentals. When are you going to realize fundamentals don’t matter! Like GS said, and he’s right, it’s all about cycles, sentiment and price. Gold is getting rushed again. The cycle is over. This is the principal of ever changing cycles. I HATE BEING RIGHT HERE!!! But is is clearly over for gold. As I said all along, we have seen the parabolic blowoffs in gold and silver, new comers will not be rewarded. I didn’t need any tech analyst or elliotvwave to know this, just my gut. It’s has been lower lows and lower highs. This time we couldn’t even get passed $1435. Now,$1400 is very hard resistance. $1500 by end of September fast becoming pipe dream. Tomorrows NFP report only crushes it more. Time to get out with something.
Peter Schiff just published an article on kitco “off to the races” if this is a race it is the slowest race I ever saw, or maybe a race to the bottom. I know a little something about racing. There is a other term called the shutout. When you are unable to get your bet I. On time and the race is off. I. Think we are seeing that in spades. Those who waited for a bottom in housing are now seeing house prices and rates rise – they are shutout. Those who put the faith hope and trust in gold only to see stocks go to the moon are now shutout. Those who got in late are now getting slaughtered in gold and silver only wish they had been shutout. END OF SEPTEMBER CAN’T COME FAST ENOUGH FOR ME NOW SO I CAN GET OFF THIS MERRY GO ROUND AND STOP THIS MADNESS!!! just my opinion
Geez, James, gold jumped 20% in 2 months and this is the “slowest race you ever saw?”
The uptrend line that began just over two months ago hasn’t even been touched, let alone broken, and you think “it is clearly over for gold?” I have to wonder how you were able to do so well in the past with such a complete lack of understanding about how markets typically move. As I said yesterday, there is, and still remains, NOTHING bearish about the current action, NOTHING.
Last week, I said that I thought we could go to fibonacci support at $1336. That’s $30 more downside. I guess you’ll probably blowout your position on such a move.
There is also no reason why gold can’t go back and test the 55 day moving average at $1317. I would actually like to see gold go to the $1330+/- area next week as this would form a very nice looking, potential, bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern.
I don’t think the end of September can come fast enough for me, either!
Hang on, there is no comparison with the parabolic blowoffs in gold and silver in 1980. 2011 was puny by comparison.
Gold is looking tired right now, in need of a pause. Silver has a shport term head and shoulders that could take it to 21 and change, so what? Sure, they could go to $1000 and $15 but that would be against the seasonal trend and in 2011 to early 2013, prices already went down against the seasonal trends. This is the first time since 2008 that gold went into the traditional buying season after a big selloff.
Yeah, fundamentals don’t matter – until they matter. If cycles were always correct, you could always predict the price – and you can’t. Elliott Wave and all that is nice but you can always paint in the cycles in hindsight. The waves are never obvious until they have happened.
I don’t think the bull market is over for gold but the mid-cycle cyclical bear market might not be over. However, it would take quite a turn for the early 2013 downtrend to reassert itself fully.
The chart has reverse head and shoulders patterns all over it, with targets up to $1600.
$1430 was formidable resistance from late 2010 and there ‘should have’ been a big correction after that – but there wasn’t. There was a mini-bubble on the COMEX and physical demand fell off at hih price towards $1900. Now physical demand has been huge (1000 tonnes each for China and India) as we are back at a ‘reasonable’ level in price of $1200-1400. I had an offer for me to buy gold today and turned it down. I got all I could afford in 2002-2004. If I didn’t have any at all, I would have been getting some at $1200-1300 for insurance.
The cyclical bear could go on for even another couple of years, maybe and take prices to $1000 or even maybe $890. However, at some point the dollar will top and it will have to be devalued as in the 1930s or we will never get out of this credit crunch.
Talking abut cycles, we just had a 4.5 year bull market in general stocks with hardly a pause.
And I really don’t understand why the dollar is going up.
Paul Eden is on 321 gold today.
His figuring is logical imo. Maybe I get to say I dont think gold will go much below $1000 again. Until we hit it then I can jest about it going to $500.
Its a totally manipulated market and about the only fundamental I can think of is figureing out where the fed wants the price to be.
Gold down,dollar up. Maybe preperation for Syria. Who knows why now, maybe just because the goldbugs think sept is a good month and hammering it is supposed to take the wind out of their sails.
What are the chances of gold holding on to 1340 until the FOMC? Probably not so good. Sept is supposed to be a seasonally strong month for gold so if we don’t make hay in Sept that is not good news for gold bugs. This could be another setback. No one saw this coming. Nothing phyzz holders can do about this.
What are the chances gold holds $1,340 today??
Very good.
I say patience for another year or two and when it turns, good luck finding it.
How could you say no one saw this coming? I’ve been saying this for months now. It’s been nothing but setbacks. No one, repeat no one, knows where gold is going. And no one can be trusted either.
James, on August 30th, with gold at $1396, I told you that I thought gold could fall to at least $1350 -$1336.
You have been assuming that this would happen. Fact is, we are at the mercy of events that no one could have predicted and certainly TA cannot predict. Its been painful that is for sure. We are not down for the count yet in my opinion. We will know more in the next few weeks.
Kong’s got it that hot money out of Japan ( 3x larger stimulus program than U.S ) is then converted to USD – and used to purchase U.S denominated Assets. USD up = US stocks up. Then when this gets hit hard – US stocks sold, USD repatriated to JPY and gold takes off.
The guy has it pegged again and again. Forex Kong at http://www.forexkong.com
LOL he’s been short the dollar and getting killed.
Jane/Kong
Does anyone believe some random lady is going to be constantly posting links to Kong’s site and conveniently overlooking that he’s misses trades just like everyone else in this business.
Universal truth: There is no holy grail, and no one has a working crystal ball. There are only probabilities and everyone has their own set of tools to try and skew the odds in their favor. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Eventually the market breaks every system.
Stands back from the keyboard in ameenmzat! Thanks!
It’s interesting how the Nikkei 225 stocks in Japan have been performing only on the back of the weak Yen. USD:JPY ratio up -> Nikkei stocks up.
Check ratio of Nikkei to double inverse Yen ETC (YCS). On stockcharts.com it is the ratio $NIKK:YCS. Basically a flat line for 3 years, regardless of events, Earthquake, Tsunami, Fukushima, Abenomics, QE, etc.
I actually listened to this clown Gary clown today – debating 10 dollar moves in gold as means to make decisions??! Ridiculous! An asset worth 1390.00 ?? and debating 10 dollar moves as meaningful levels? Unreal. No basis for analysis at all.
Gary Savage is pretty sharp. Especially for calling short term trends. I think the insults are unwarranted. I believe golds medium term future truly depends on what happens in the next FOMC meeting and also whether we decide to fire missiles on Syria. Until we get more certainty we are going to stay in PM flux. I believe it would be wize to Wait a few weeks before buying more gold.
I thought Gary S was viewing gold as up, up and away. Now he is saying watch out, $1025 is coming?
Paul van EEden thinks he’s smarter than God. Fair market value of gold $950? Fair market value is determined by what people voluntarily pay absent unfair manipulation by non-market forces. The cost of production cannot be greater than the “fair” market price, otherwise that whole market has to shut down. Would it be considered fair market value if houses, cars or food were to sell for less than cost to produce it? Get real!
Mr. Eden shows his math. Looks ok to me. But yes, few things should fall lower than production costs. Remember silver was lower than production cost for some time tho, thats why we went from about 10 billion above ground onces to about a billion today, so it can happen.
All markets are ruled by psychology in the short term. This is partially where speculative opportunity comes from. Longer term, fundamentals rule. Even central bankers can’t trump fundamental considerations indefinitely.
I agree with Arnie. Get real PVE, when you are wrong for 5+ years and miss a 100% gain, then reality has spoken.
Yes, benb, imbalances do occur in commodities and consumer goods such as food stocks, often local or regional, and usually resolved fairly quickly because producers do have options from season to season. I have several family members in these sectors. Mining is very different from agriculture in that huge expenditures are required, over long time frames, and once committed can’t stop or do something else on short notice. As for precious metals, what we’re talking about here is alternative currencies (vs. fiat) and the stakes are very high and long term. Gov’ts seek public support, so they make big promises that have unintended consequences down the road. Eastern nations have a much longer time horizon than western democracies and they are buying all the gold they can get, voluntarily, at today’s prices, so who is PVE to say what is fair market value?
Hi Arnie, your right of course, Sounds like maybe you would prefer Mike Maloneys calculations.
Dont get me wrong, I think people should own some gold, I just dont know how powerful the manipulaters are, I dont underestimate them. If they have 50% of the worlds wealth, and they likely have a great deal more than that, then they can do whatever they want,however they want,whenever they want.
This is the reason that people should understand the fed, I personaly dont think people do.
Think about it, they determine where a war will be fought,how,by whom and it doesnt matter what anyone thinks. Thats power.
It does matter what anyone thinks. This is why they go to such lengths to make sure that everyone thinks what they want them to.
“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.” –Edward Bernays, Propaganda
🙂 Here be Wisdom.
ditto
Yes exactly Mathew.
What I mean by “it doesnt matter what anyone thinks” is exactly what your saying, and I have said for years and years too.
Those in power will cause the people to think how they want them to think and more, they can make them act how they want people to act.
Where did the greek,portugeese or spanish protests go? for example
Where is occupy wall street. They know full well nobody is going to get even close to threatening their power. These guys can knock down towers kill thousands and with overwhelming evedence nobody does anything and most people still have a hard time believing it was a false flag and prefer to think a couple guys with boxcutters can hijak planes in the most protected airspace on the planet. And that excludes everything else.
But thats the power these guys have over peoples thinking and actions, or non action in that case.
Reminds me of a saying “dont fight the fed” maybe they always were speaking of the federal reserve.
And here’s why they have such success:
“The average citizen is the world’s most efficient censor. His own mind is the greatest barrier between him and the facts. His own ‘logic proof compartments,’ his own absolutism are the obstacles which prevent him from seeing in terms of experience and thought rather than in terms of group reaction.” — Bernays, Crystallizing Public Opinion
& “If we understand the mechanism and motives of the group mind, it is now possible to control and regiment the masses according to our will without them knowing it.” -Bernays, Propaganda
And here’s why they like democracy (it is a very good tool):
“The engineering of consent is the very essence of the democratic process, the freedom to persuade and suggest.” — Bernays, The Engineering of Consent
The falacy in PVE’s calculation is that he is too US centric.
He uses only inflation in the US dollar to determine the real price of gold in dollars. (Thus totally ignoring the rest of the world.)
This is clearly in error. E.g. suppose US kept the money supply constant, but China increased it’s buying of gold 500%……under PVE’s theory the price of gold would be constant, which obviously would not be true.
Paul e. IS ALWAYS negative ……….I think he is a short……..
Jerry, that being the case, he is probably a BIG winner if he went short in 2011.
Some people say better early than late. Nothing saying that Mr. Eden hasnt made money tradeing like he says he does no matter which way he thinks its gonna go.
I think his math looks ok to me.
And your right about fundamentals, but we been saying “should” for how many years now?
I think its possible the fed is a heck of alot stronger than people give credit.
These guys are psychopaths and Rothchild is said to have aquired 50% of the worlds wealth by 1850? (about)
I would say they pretty much know what their doing by now. If they didnt and just got lucky more than a hundred years ago.
This correction has only exceeded the other recent ones by about 4 months. After an unprecedented run lasting over a decade, it shouldn’t be too surprising (in hindsight of course!). Yes the Fed is extraordinarily powerful, but they still can’t print gold. No doubt, the Rothschilds are way up there, but wealth is not finite and there are many ways to measure it. By the way, the envious masses would do well to learn that wealth is not finite. They are not poor because others are rich. They are poor for many reasons and many very unfair realities that a tiny few elite “rich” are the cause of, but NOT because of the average rich guy who attained his wealth without the help of any connections or the coercive power of the state.
Good talking to you, benb. Some cycles are short, some are long. As Abe Lincoln said, you can fool some people all of the time, all of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. We, in the west, have been fooled for a long time, but some people are waking up to big time manipulation for generations now, and I don’t think the fed can get away with it forever, but they’ll fight like hell to keep their game going. Like Gandhi said: “First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win”. I’m 68 years old, but in very good health, so perhaps I’ll live long enough to “win”. It will be worth it, I believe, both morally and financially. All the best to you and all readers.
You can fool some of people all of the time, all of the people some of the time, and that’s good enough.
I hope we both live long enough Arnie.
I really dislike those guys.
Best to you too.
Great interchange of thought Matthew and bemb. Thanks!
People wonder how I managed to do so well considering my opinions now. It is easy. I got in early and stayed with the trend, nothing more complicated than that. I rode out the temporary dips, as nerve racking as some of them were because I believed in gold. Now the trend is changed. It isn’t that hard. I stayed in a lot longer than I should have and I no longer believe in gold like I once did
The big trend, as measured from the beginning of the bull market, is still UP. Maybe you should have sold more near the highs (that goes for me too, if we’re talking about the miners), but don’t double down on your bad timing just because of what you have been through. Do it based on a clear analysis of the facts (which do not support your bearish view, in my opinion).
Gold is inert, it doesn’t need believers, it just “is”. What does need “believers” is the stuff that is based on faith, namely fiat currencies. The dollar, and all other fiat currencies, are based on nothing but faith in the status quo, and as we all know, the status quo is very weak in the knees that will buckle at some point. They always do.
If gold really is a barbarous relic, why do people even talk about it anymore, why is it even an issue? Back in 1969/70, I travelled the world and collected souvenir paper money along the way, virtually none of which is even in circulation anymore, hence worthless, so why do people put faith in politically created money which comes and goes as opposed to gold which has stood the test of time for thousands of years everywhere in the world? Can’t people connect the dots?
Do people “believe” in air, or water, or food? Of course not, they don’t have to believe because they “know” based on repeated experience. Belief is not required except for that which we do not know, but we know gold has value, from repeated experience of millenial extent.
Great point. We’ll know people are waking up when the dollar price of gold is seen for what it really is, a measure of the dollars value, not a measure of gold’s value.
Exactly!
everyone should read this http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.ca/2013/08/gold-hidden-agenda-behind-bear-raid.html
Then you should all scroll to the bottom and read the comment left by Gary. That 1 comment sums up what an idiot this guy is, for those who dont know him
Ms:
By now everybody knows what kind of person Gary is (i.e. a clueless egocentric idiot) but getting back to business…..gold is now in the middle of several technical indicators (i.e. not oversold not overbought). I still believe that a war will decide the fate of gold in the short to medium term. Let’s see how the Syrian situation plays out. I still believe that gold should be heading to new lows if there is no war and the US stock market should benefit from international capital inflows.
Let’s see how it goes.
The trolls are back 🙂
I said many times Gold was only worth $500 …. but I had to up my target to $950 – $1,000 so people would start interviewing me again.
does not compute ………..
go back to 1933, and put some inflation on the material
Makes no sense to me. Predictions of new highs this fall by Gary which just is not possible in such a short time frame and now he is mentioning retests of the low.
New highs were predicated on the dollar continuing down. The dollar has not followed through to the downside. Also the miners started to diverge last week. That was another warning sign that something might be wrong and the intermediate cycle could be topping.
This is why I told subscribers to lighten up or go to cash on Tuesday morning. We have to get past the FOMC meeting and see what happens to the dollar and how gold reacts to the Fed meeting.
If gold breaks below 1340ish then the odds become higher that the bear market isn’t done yet. In that case we can probably expect a full test of the 2008 C-wave top at $1030.
Three of the last four D-waves all ended up testing the prior C-wave tops before final bottoms. So it isn’t unusual to see this happen. So far it has been the norm for this secular bull market.
So I believe the safest strategy at the moment is to stay in cash until we get past the FOMC meeting. If gold fails to make new highs then continue to stay in cash until gold tests $1050ish. That would then be the spot to go back into the market full throttle.
Bro, give up man
LOL I’ve hit every call since June (well except the dollar). I even got subs out at the exact top on Tuesday. Why would I want to give up. I’ve got a hot streak going.
So what happened to the 8 year cycle? There was a failed yearly cycle which should then mean you have another 3 years of declines, and bull market over
Yes we do have a failed yearly cycle and that is a concern. I don’t think this was a natural move though so I’m willing to give gold the benefit of the doubt. We need to see a higher intermediate high to negate the failed yearly cycle.
Oh now it’s a concern. Perhaps you should post that entry I linked yesterday again, didn’t sound too concerned there….where I now notice that the ‘I told you so’ comment at the bottom has been removed
You are a con man, plain and simple
Gold breaks previous low, the bull is over. We are looking towards 10 years plus before new highs. Gold goes to 1030, the bull is done for a decade at the least.
I feel so much happier now I unteasdrnd all this. Thanks!
And still dropping heavily!