We start Friday with Gary Savage
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Gold is looking strong after many dips to around 1393 to 1395 and it is breaking out above 1400 and should come back stronger now with a beat of 1425. I bought 5k NEM on the dips yesterday and took my gains. Added more today and holding so far with my large core position.
Gary, I personally think we are nowhere near the beginning of gold’s bubble phase. Other cycle followers agree with me, how can you make this statement without explanation?
I think so too. Gold will remain weak until we get above 1550 and that is when the long term uptrend may start after tackling 1800 the bubble phase could begin.
Bobby, the bubble phase of the 1970s began after the low of about $100 in August, 1976. It ended 3.5 years later with an intraday high of $875. I think there could easily be a bubble (or something close) within 3.5 years. I do not think there will be another correction like the one we just had, before that bubble. So, while it is very early, I think Gary could easily be right.
Alternatively, since we are only just beginning to see interest rates rise, the current setup could be more similar to 1971-72 than 1976. If this is the case, gold’s 50% decline could still be ahead. Maybe it will start from $3500 and THEN we see something like that late 1970s 8.5 fold advance from $1750. This would put gold right at Mike Maloney’s $15,000/oz.
What do you see happening next?
I am in Paul’s camp,
That’s really the same as Gary’s camp in my opinion. The only difference is that you and Paul need more technical confirmation.
Matthew: Have you ever read last Gary’s report? There is nothing “technical” about it. Just mumbo jumbo. Gary has no idea about technical analysis otherwise he would have noticed the obvious short time REAL indicators in PMs, semi bullish public opinion in silver, substantial increase in hedge funds and other speculators net long exposures in silver and silver approaching solid resistance at 26. It seems to be it is a good time to start thinking about shorting PMs. Contrary to Garys un-substantiated narrow view of the precious metals market and taking into account short term overbought technical indicators and macroeconomic events (money coming into the US stock market from Europe and emerging markets) I believe that the PMs are going lower. Money will flow into the stock market first and we will see new lows in gold and silver. Sorry but no $15,000 gold. Take a look at REAL indicators at SENTIMENTRADER or SHORTSIDEOFLONG.
No $15,000 golld?
Pibe, other than a few articles, I am not familiar with Gary’s work. Do you think the public was bullish on silver in 1976? Or even ’77 or ’78? The “bubble” phase BEGINS from an important low. The run to $1900+ began at $680. Lows, like highs, are always dominated by people like yourself who become totally convinced that the recent trend will continue. It is nothing but bullish that far more people would agree with your view right now than mine.
Sorry, but your statement about $15,000 gold is just that, a statement. If you don’t put an argument forward, I have to assume that it reflects only your feelings, and not much else. Were you around to hear the arrogant, dismissive, laughter when people like me told friends and family that gold was going over $1500 back when it was under $500? Even gold bulls were saying “you’re not going to want to live in a world with $2000 gold.” At major bottoms, bears are a dime a dozen.
It could very well be a vision/dream about the soon conmig invasion of America. I posted a short video about this earlier today during the last part of the video. Rick Willes got intel from some higher ups that work at DHS that they are training over 20,000 Russian troops on America soil right now.Keep asking God to reveal more to you if you want to know more about this. Keep me informed:)Luvs
I think the manipulation this spring will accelerate the bull. If allowed to trade freely I was expecting the bubble phase in 2017/18. But I think the manipulation has damaged the supply fundamentals and this will cause the bull to speed up. I’m looking for a bubble top in late 14 or early 15.
I would think in these markets both TA and much of the fundamentals are tough to use alone. A bit of intuition based on msrket knowledge is necessary.
I am rooting for Gary Savage to be correct in his calls. No one knows for sure what is going to happen but at the very least we have a good chance of seeing great moves in PM starting in Sept. I don’t invest in stocks but if I did I would be on the sidelines right now and into PM. Phyzz of course. Hunkering down right now is the most prudent approach. Better to protect what you have right now. You want to be one of the last men standing in my opinion so you can partake on whats possibly left of the carnage. Just my opinion.
Jeffery Saut at Raymond James also thinks that the market will make a new high after this correction is over. I still doubt it, but there are enough confident bears out there to make it very possible. There were far fewer very vocal bears in the summer of 2008, so I went short. I am not short now, but I am not at all tempted to buy anything in the conventional market either.
I read KWN knowing that the information is biased and not dependable.
I completely disagree, Glen. Each of the guests that appear are absolutely independent. The experts are varied in their backgrounds and their opinions if you just listen closely. For example, Embry, like most others, is a China bear; Leeb is a China Bull. Many (probably most) guests are “Austrian school” while Leeb and others are Keynesians. Most guests are very bearish on conventional stock markets while Saut is bullish. Al has interviewed Grant Williams many times and was very popular. Are his opinions suddenly invalid simply because he is telling them to Eric King?
There is no evidence whatsoever that Eric King hands his guests a script before going on air.
Like my own views, the views of many of these guests are much older than KWN.
i agree matthew king world news is a good way fore information and knowing to all the gold market .
glen the holl world is hand picked BOY !
Not to be a party pooper, but kwn has only bulls as guests, similar to ker, none of them identified the top in 2011.
I beg to disagree. I would not call Rick and Doc irrational bulls.
Bobby, to be fair, no bears identified the top either. In fact, even the gold-hating, goldbug-insulting Nouriel Roubini advised BUYING gold right before the top. Cramer was also saying “BUY.”
Between 1800 and 1910, I sold gold for the first time ever. I have not replaced any of it because I prefer silver and mining stocks at this time.
[…] Daily commentary Written by Gold Scents […]
KWN is entertaining especially when I am a little down in the dumps. The guests are hand picked in my opinion so a particular view that is desired is always presented. Just my opinion. The headlines seem to be redundant and sensational as well. I come to this site so I can hear different opinions that make me think a little and make my own decisions.
I do agree that KWN is (needlessly) sensational. Every interview is “powerful!” This obviously does not help his or his guests credibility, which is unfair to most of the guests in my opinion.
I agree, glen
I notice a perfect synchronization between gold bugs and realtors in a global bull… trap. 🙂
With China on the edge, and Indian rupee slaughtered what is going to happen with the “fundamentals” of gold? Oh… yeah… we are starting the bubble phase. :))
“China on the edge” -says you and the herd. Even if China’s growth rate falls, it will not go negative. The fundamentals for gold are superb, but that’s generally understood by most on this site, so I won’t bother laying them out. Again, lots of convinced bears are necessary in order to kick off the next leg up. The more the better.
Just read Gary’s report (it is free) There is nothing bearish about it on the contrary is manic bullish and that is usually a good contrarian indicator -it has been an EXCELLENT CONTRARIAN INDICATOR during the past 2 years- and read SENTIMENTRADER and SHORTSIDEOFLONG, take a look at the current overbought oscillators. Again nothing bearish about the current sentiment in PM (in order for the gold bull to resume the majority should be wrong -as you correctly stated; but it is not the case right now- still a lot of narrow-viewed gold bugs claiming gold to $15,000. Read Gold-Eagle: most of the articles are bullish. Read 321gold: most of the articles bullish. That was not the case in 1976 so…..sorry but you are wrong; most of the gold bugs are already claiming the bottom is in and the gold bubble phase is starting. In order for than to happen the majority should be wrong and it is not the case right now. Please read everything and then we can discuss it.
Professionals, especially goldbug professionals, turning bullish is much different than the public sentiment reading. Yes, the sector is short term overbought. This is obviously short term bearish, but in the big picture, it would be far more bearish if the move off the low was weak. The power, breadth, and depth of this move is bullish. The BPGDM hit 72 at the peak of the rally last fall. It is now just 55. In November, 2010, it hit 93.33. So there is plenty of room to run.
Every gold bug is not claiming that the bubble phase is starting. Can you name a few. Can you also provide an example of how bearish goldbugs were in ’76? Mainstream articles don’t count, by the way. Most goldbugs are feeling beat-up and unsure right now, don’t let attitudes like mine fool you. Even on this site, how much bullishness do you really see? I see caution and people timidly waiting for this or that to occur before taking any long-side action.
How convinced are you? Are you selling/shorting rallies or buying puts? Are you buying the dip in conventional stocks, or even buying on leverage?
Ok I will write about silver to be more specific which seems to be the “poor’s gold” according to the “popular” view:
Public Opinion in Silver (that is GENERAL PUBLIC NOT PROFESSIONALS i.e. DUMB money): 58
Technically speaking, Silver has a polarity resistance at $26 (previous support) and a downtrend line around the same level.
Slow Stochastics for silver: overbought.
Number of bullish/bearish people here -in this page-: 50/50.
Contrarian indicators: GARY SAVAGE: -currently manic bullish-
This does not seem like a depressed gold sentiment -at least not yet-
And what was the dumb money sentiment when silver was $18 in June? The answer to that is far more important than the current reading. Who the heck would expect sentiment NOT to rise after the action we just witnessed?!
So, are you buying the Dow; shorting gold stocks? You likely missed the 33% rise in silver, so what looks good from here? Cash, stocks, bonds, what?
Cash, stocks, bonds, what?: I have been posting real time trades using DUST (as a short term instrument) so far the profits are 80%. You can take a look at my previous comments. I posted my trades in real time in this blog (actually I did that to show Big Al how good Gary is as a contrarian indicator). I am using a percentage of my money for short term trades using DUST.
As far as long term: I believe we have 2 macro-economic scenarios: If there is a war in the middle east: gold should do well otherwise the US stock market should act as a “magnet” attracting money from Europe and emerging economies due to current instability in those regions. That should be the catalyst for the US stock market to raise significantly. Again; this is just my current long term economic theory and much less scientific than the current technical indicators I previously described.
Well of course, Matthew!
Hi AC,
I want to make it perfectly clear that gold appreciating in price is definitely not my rational for being intetrsted in it.
I kinda understand what you mean, but why don’t you wait to grab the shinny metal when the bankrupted people will sell it at whatever price? 🙂
Stage 1 DEFLATION
Stage 2 System switch (gold might be… tulip bulb)
as a happy subscriber to Gary savage I would point out that he was the only site that I saw that suggested in Jan /13 that his advice was to get out of the pm’s or be prepared to go “cold turkey” until we got better clarification on how things would unfold. When the “shenanigans” over ABN Amro were first visible publicly in early April, I brought this to the attention of this site and was met with an attitude that basically we must make sure our facts are right and must not fall for misinformation. While politically correct, this hardly encouraged “free discussion”.
I have no problem with Gary and I have to wonder why anyone would. After all everyone’s opinion should be considered.
I want to thank Matthew for his posts which are educational, precise and well thought out. I would like to see him participate in the week end round table as well.
Jerry, you’re welcome, and thank you for the compliments.
Two invitations, Gator!
Jerry:
In a round table you need balanced points of view to make it interesting. If you just put a bunch of gold-bugs discussing how high gold will go it is not educational anymore; it is just narrow-viewed. All round tables need at least two different points of view, to make it a discussion; Matthew is just another gold-bug like most of the people here -he was right on buying gold at $ 500 oz. but he is on the same camp as the majority now. I like gold as well and I also bought several ounces at $600-$700 but I try to be as objective as I can (by looking at hard-core objective indicators) and honestly I was amazed to be criticized for being objective (usually when my finding do not support the current view of the bubble phase in gold).
Pibe,
Got to disagree about Matthew being just another gold bug. He backs up his arguments with facts and points out his reasoning behind his position. I would hardly call that a narrow minded view anymore than I would call Bird’s point of view narrow minded.
Ok Jerry thanks. I think I made my point already. Not much to add; I did not mean to use the term “gold-bug” in a bad way. Good luck!
I did not take it in a bad way, Pibe.
GO GATOR……………DITTO on MATTHEW………..
Thank you Jerry.
Yes, I am “just” another goldbug. Such wording exposes your indoctrination. So you bought gold at $600-$700. What has changed since you did so? An OBJECTIVE and thorough look at things should have made you want to buy even more gold on a big sale. Your “objectivity” seems to be very heavily influenced by losses, missed opportunities, or both. The blame you place on Gary for your actions is not very objective either. I view every newsletter as just one more source of information. I have completely disagreed with many over the years, but, right or wrong, my actions are my responsibility.
No criticism from me Pibe.
Well Matthew….here we go again. By attacking me you are being emotional and not objective. Oh well I tough this was a rational debate. Good luck and take care!
It might be too subtle for you, but you “attacked” first with that dismissive, condescending “just another goldbug” comment. Were you here between late 2011 and early this year? If so, you know that I was the only one expecting new highs in the conventional market since Dec. 2011. Al, Doc, Rick and most here did not. Does that sound like “just another goldbug” to you? Even if I had been wrong, that was still not the view of your average goldbug.
Above, you said “sorry but you are wrong.” Taken in context, those are words of inexperience. The OBJECTIVE person knows that neither of us knows who’s right about the nature of this new uptrend. But it does exhibit the features of a young, new cyclical bull market.
Sure Matthew; you win. Good Luck and take care!
If you can’t take the heat…
YeeLing – My darling looks abollutesy stunning rub-off effect I guess sweetheart looks ok lah like kinda dashing as well. Congrats Khar Min & Matt!
I would prefer to get back on track and talk about investments; if you don’t mind. I replied to your comment about cash, stocks and bonds.
Sounds good. I disagree that war is required for gold to do very well, but deficit spending is the quickest way to smoke the currency, so war would give gold a bigger push. Dubya’s deficit spending did a lot for gold before QE existed. I see your “magnet” scenario as possible, which is part of the reason I’m not short stocks. The problem is that I believe that Europe could improve (or at least appear to) for a while.
I am having trouble understanding how people think the market can experience a major pullback without gold and silver participating. Yes, the precious metals will eventually decouple from the market but initially I beleive the 2 to be correlated. At this juncture, inflation is in assets not goods and services. The perception is that consumer inflation is tame. Therefore, I see “taper” hitting asset prices including gold and silver. That is where the embedded inflation is. If the Fed realizes tapering failed, they may re-engage in additional stimulus thus lifting stocks and pm’s. Even bonds should benefit.
If they do not taper, then the markets should not experience that significant of a pullback. The same could be said of gold and silver. Bonds may continue to underperform as yields stay elevated or rise on worries that the embedded inflation in asset prices may start to matriculate over into consumer prices. I think Fed Governor Bullard once pushed for this scenario whereby the Fed allows interest rates to rise creating the perception of a stronger economy and more inflation.
In January, 2001, the Dow opened at 10,790 and the HUI opened at 41.
In January, 2003, the Dow closed at 8,054 and the HUI closed at 144.
The Dow lost 25% while senior gold stocks gained 250%. Juniors did far better.
Yes. I said “iniatially” then a decoupling.
2008 gold & silver sold off with market then gold decoupled. Gold finished up 1% that year.
Sorry to pick nits, but gold finished 2008 up 5.588%
Fair enough. Numbers get muddled in my mind.
I consider the two markets to be very different and I believe the rational for investing in each to also be different.
How do you perceive them differently? Would you kindly explain?
Gold is most negatively correlated with financial assets. Gold does best when the economy is contracting; precisely when when stocks do poorly. This is why the Dow has plunged about 80% versus gold since its real peak in 2000.
Yes, I know this. My argument was a short term one. I said that pm’s would participate in a sell off then decouple. That was all I was saying.
If you’re talking about a crash, or something close, then I agree with you. But, if stocks just grind lower in an unspectacular way, then I think the whole gold sector will do very well. I just saw your post below to Al. I think I misunderstood too.
Bingo Matthew. The talk I hear is imminent crash, or big drop, etc. If that happens, gold & silver will not be spared. BUT, they should decouple. Thats what I meant.
Sure, I have known irrational bulls since I became involved in this industry in the late 1970’s.
They generally never felt markets could fall.
If either Rick, Doc or anyone else said “look for a retracement or a correction” these folks would have called them, angerly, absolutely insane.
90% of these folks went broke.
Ever heard Rick or Doc call for $5,000 gold “right around the corner?
No, all I hear from them is rational thinking.
The other guys, who you don’t hear on this site, are just subscription salesmen.
Al, I misunderstood you. I thought you meant 2008 versus today.
Also, to your point on Doc or Rick calling for $5,000 gold-they are technicians. I would not expect them to do so. I thought that was why they were on your show-short term color. Jim Rickards, Jim Sinclair…guys like that are not subscription salesman. I am not sure I understand that comment.
Lindsay – I am glad you are back! I love your posts. Leave it to Annie and Keith to come up with one amazing adntevure. That place looks so cool. I am glad you went. Sometimes I get scared too, I am always glad when I force myself out of my shell. I am always glad I did. (Usually.)
I highly recommend longwavegroup.com. The answer about stocks, bonds, cash can be found there…
Al, you missed the point. Matthew, not true, both Armstrong and edelston called the top, just to name 2. BTW, who listens to Cramer.
Charles Nenner also called the top. I said no bears called the top. I wouldn’t call Armstrong or Edelson bears. I also wouldn’t give much credit to Edelson’s call since he turned bearish (called the top) when gold was $500 lower than $1900 many months earlier. He had a lot of angry subscribers.
I would bet that many called the top privately and were sellers. With a weekly and monthly RSI in the 80s, and the price $400 above the 8 month moving average, who wouldn’t sell? Gold also showed a huge warning and exhaustion when it first went to $1917, then to 1703, two weeks before the final push to 1923. On that first $200 dollar plunge, I actually bought back some gold and sold it again on the final rise. There was plenty of new sellers to go with the new buyers at that time, it sure wasn’t just me or the few guys who called the top publicly.
Again, my earlier point was that there weren’t any bears helping anyone either. The vocal bears were the worst since they turned bullish at the worst time. Besides, $1923 was A top, not THE top for this secular bull market. No one should expect timely, actionable advice for free anyway.
paulkongck – sudden think about your blog again,, your work still insrpie me as usual, everytime lack of ideas, i will see you pic to get the feel of your pic.. i love your work.. looking forward to see more nice pics in your new blog..ps: u not onli insrpied kenneth tan, but also insrpied me in this line too since Yew Leong+Adrienne wedding last year. hehehe
I think you have good points Matthew. I do partially agree with you but I still think we need a war for gold to rally before the stock market does. Anyway….I was doing some reading this weekend and it seems to be that next week I will be selling my DUST position. Indicators are now in the middle (including Gary contrarian indicator that is now short term gold bearish; that means good for gold in the short term). Taking into account the indicators I have been reading (oscillators, COTs, sentiment, gold opinion and Gary’s contrarian indicator) I do not feel comfortable holding DUST for much longer although gold could still go lower during next week. Let’s see what happens.
I think your timing on DUST will be very good. It wouldn’t surprise me if it at least approaches $35 next week or early the following week. I think GDX will test the $26.30 area and gold the $1350 area and very possibly $1336.
Keeping in mind that I’m a biased bull, I would try not to let potentially great action in DUST keep you in the trade if I were you. I think we have all been bitten by overstaying a trade!
Actually what I mean is that I expect gold to do better next week and then resume the decline. That means: short time bullish and bearish long term, unless we go to war with Syria; that would change everything. Let’s see how it goes.
Selling DUST right now. This week will be good for PMs.
Happy Labor Day weekend to one and all.