Rick Ackerman is sticking with $1485 gold.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I did think that $1538 was the bottom but obviously I have changed my mind. Here comes ‘go away in May’.
Dan
Yes, Summer is usually the weak season (but it wasn’t in 2011 though).
I still fear a multi year cyclical bear here for gold and islver, like in 1974-78, with the price taking 4 years then to return to the 1974 high ie 2 years down and 2 years up, although this latest bull market in gold has run more slowly so it might be 4-5 years down and 4-5 years up as the dollar has a bull rally and then tops, maybe in 2016 would be my guess.
I’m sticking with my $850 gold in two years. Once it breaches $1400 then $1200 should be quick.
$890 would be a Fibonacci 61.8% correction of the entire bull run from $253 to 1920, i.e. a $1030 drop from the $1920 top.
$890 is aso the 1980 high in April 1980 Gold Futures.
A 38.2% correction of the run would be to $1282 and a 50% retreacement would go to $1086. Take your pick. I think we could go to one of the above 3 figures, as the non US dollar currencies unravel, then to $8000+ when the US dollar unravels.
An $890 low target sounds very severe but would be a bit like the 1974-76 retracement in the 1970s bull market which saw about a 61% retracement of the upmove and basically dropped gold be half. Then the market went up 8x to the 21 January 1980 top at $800+
Perhaps you could get an Elliott Wave analyst to come and give us an idea of where they think we are in the cycles.
Gold could of course fly to new highs tomorrow but people always think that in a bear market because denial has set in.
However, I can tell by the tone of voice of Al and his interviewees that disappontment is in the air, so maybe it is time for a bounce.
Whatever happens, this correction has told us that we can’t assume anything. Aren’t markets fascinating?
Bless you SilverFox, your faith in the dollar is truly touching!
The ten year chart looks damning to me. Not quite the look of a double top off a parabolic move but pretty close. Enough to question if this is not indeed the end.
[…] the course of an interview I did yesterday with Al Korelin, I noticed something about June Gold’s daily chart that I […]
The good news is that silver didn’t really go down that much today. My few years of watching these markets have shown that this is good in regards to the near future price. I see jump up tomorrow or next couple of days unless silver drops. I find the gold silver ratio to be very important in which way we are going overall.
Remember it is the Bernacke that is in charge not a couple of Fed Gov’s who say I think will stop buying bonds or stop QE action.
A target for May Silver corresponding to the one at 1487.90 I’d given for June Gold lies at 25.460, or 24.925 if any lower. This implies that Silver has farther to fall. Since Gold’s 1491.40 low this morning fell slightly shy of the target, the higher of the two Silver targets could conceivably be reached on a relapse to marginal new lows.
Cyprus dumping their gold must be the take down reason today with the gov’t and big banks in the same bed lowering their forecasts.
Some good gold commentary:
http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2013/04/gold-price-took-back-81-percent-of-its.html
The powers that be obviously know what they are doing … They can cause gold to hit the moon if they so desire and they can also cause it to sink to the depths of the sea. All that they need to do is have every country sell off their gold to finance the bail ins … The mass sell off by government pawns will be enough to make the ship sink in my opinion. They know exactly what they are doing and everyone will be shirtless when all is said and done.
No doubts, Bentnail. Gold is the enemy of stimulus and QE’s all over the planet now. It is opposed by every country that is in the process of a devaluation which interestingly enough includes most of Europe, England, the US, Japan and China (plus many others). No big surprise it is getting squashed. Whenever I hear someone say “I just don’t get it” then I honestly have to shake my head in wonder. What is not to get. It is so very obvious.
My actual target is 1487.90, basis the June Comex. You can back up the truck and but ’em there, but with a very tight stop-loss. In practice, I’ll have my subscribers use what I call a ‘camouflage’ entry strategy. Although we could miss buying the exact low that way, it will allow us to get aboard very near the bottom with minimal risk. It also would permit entry even if gold’s horrific slide should reverse from somewhere above 1487.90.
Sorry. but em there = buy ’em there
Today’s avalanche has nothing to do with Goldman Sachs’ sell recommendation, by the way. Their bearish outlook was summoned into existence by the 1487.90 target, not the other way around. The target predates their negativity and is being driven by forces that lie beyond our understanding. To paraphrase Glinda the Good, Goldman has no power here.
Is it time to buy gold options?
Dan
I completely agree with Rick. Puplava figures that a gut wrenching $100 or more drop is in order to reach a puke point for the gold bugs.
My broker wanted to sell me gold calls for July. NOT! These guys will be bullish until a $100 drop puts them in their place.
My main concern is that a banking crisis does not elevate the price of gold. This is the one main reason people by gold. The BS seems endless.
Dan