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The precious metals are going lower. Gold will hit $1570 and at that time I would have to look at the charts to see if the odds are of lower prices. I’ve sold all my PM stocks in the past except for a couple of them that I’m protecting myself with in the money call options. The conventional stock markets have and are peaking and should move lower and will take mining stocks with them. I’m shorting all the markets along with oil and materials.
Inflation – Roger said yesterday that gasoline in California is over $5 in some places. Well in the UK I heard on the BBC radio news that for the first time ever, ‘petrol’ is over £1.40 a litre, that’s US $2.22. For a UK gallon that is $10.08 a gallon! Or $8.39 for a smaller US gallon. In the middle of the “worst recession since the Great Depression?!” What’s going on? We could have more smashes ingold and silver but I wonder if we are actually at the bottom with inflaton rip-roaring into 2012.
Hi Michael
I have been forced to capitulate. I have watched silver get smashed down from $37. Its fell every day since its now $31 asnd I have had it. Cashed in 630 Kilos at a loss of £60,000. Yea it might come back but will get smashed down again like it did in Feb and sept, so whats the point.
Silver is not going anywhere for 30 years.
I have done nothing but lose money.
Look out for the december lows of $26.
Sell in May and go away they say, it wont be worth selling but I bet it does, it could be even worse and be back to $15. remember 2008 @ $8
Martin,
I am sorry to say that your estimated price points for silver do not add up from simply a demand vs supply fundamental analysis….now add the other factors and long-term upward trends are still firmly in place. I am sorry you got in with so much inventory in these volatile times. AGAIN, maybe you should look at a “step in” MOD to restart your purchases…obviously,that is completely up to you.
All the best,
Marc
More posts of this quyitla. Not the usual c***, please
Martin, sorry to got hear your 30yr prediction. Are you going the Kyle Bass way now, stacking old UK cupronickel change, or have you found an even smarter low-stress alternative?
If it goes back to $8 , you better back up the truck……
We most certainly will back up the truck Jerry.
I am looking forward to recovering my losses. Most of the dye hards wont have funds to buy a kilo.
I didnt say it would go to $8, I did say remember 2008 @ $8.
With the euro debt crisis and supposedly sad fiat currency, gold & silver should have flown, why didnt they.
The Banksters in cahoots with the US goverment are hellbent on smashing the gold, and more so the silver market.
There is nothing to stop them, they can print as much papers dollars as they want
I am just pleased I wasnt holding 630K of Gold dropping from $1900 to $1600. That would have really hurt
martin….hang in there …..if you need a driver to handle the other truck
call me…I do agree the the banksters, are hellbent on smashing the pm
it is the only thing they have left…but, it is all paper, and when the hedge
fund catch on, to pm…the banksters will be toast….
Why? Silver is at above $31, the resistance from late 2010 turned support for early 2012! It bottomed at $26 twice in late 2011, which was support from January 2011 correction. Patience! If it goes below $26 then time to panic (or get your wallet out) especially if it gets to $20-21.
However, gasoline is roaring up at $5 in the US for a US gallon and $10 in the UK for an imperial gallon. Gold and silver stocks are flat to down but nothing like the crash of 2008. The stock market is down a bit but Apple is roaring in a bubble all its own like silver last year as it was at $40+.
I wonder if this is anything like 2008. I am doubting it. I am getting the feeling that the European crisis will not really hit until we get a bout of inflation first.
Did you notice that 20 March passed without a hitch – this “key” crisis date in Europe? No, it passed by and no-one noticed at all. All eventualities have been covered by massive money printing – for now.
Hello Roger,
You typically give your read on the market, when it might rally, look for a correction
what is your take now?
Geez people,
Bailing out now? What has changed fundamentally? Those of you who have jumped ship will really be crying the blues. Weak hands always get slaughtered. No one will yank the gold and silver from my hands, not even myself.
The weak hands, including some commentators, are strictly speculators. Remember people, you don’t have a loss until you sell, just as you don’t have gains until you sell!
Buy quality and hold for at least the next 5 years! Be committed to your convictions!
David,
great comments!
David,
You’re exactly right!! Well said. I’m not selling either. I will not be one of the ‘weak hands’. How would I ever be able to look my wife or my kids in the face and try to explain why I bailed out at the worst possible moment and missed the greatest bull run in history. Fear has no place in my strategy. Hang on people. The ride hasn’t even begun yet. Believe, believe, believe. The fundamentals and all the conditions are screaming at us that this is the place to be and way to go. It’s the gyrations and bumps in the road that are upsetting some. We can’t allow the daily minutia to cause us to abandon the long term goals. As someone said earlier, “Keep looking up!” (for more than one reason) We’re still puttin’ in the next bottom. The next runup will put in a new high.
stack
ignore the british shills saying lower
when the truth of it all is ..all of this stuff is good to have and will have its place. Imo, i stockpile it all and can take care of mlyesf. I have enough guns and ammo to start a small army and enough food and water to feed them. So to answer your question again, NO! And to ask you a question in return, did you really think I was that far removed from reality? Listen watch this video over, then watch a few more of my vids and get back to me. Lol.
Mitch,
Thanks for your comment re: Martin (UK). Martin’s comment was giving me nausea. I don’t want to believe he’s right, and follow with his capitulation on my own miners and silver. I’m currently down over 20% on my miners since a month ago. It’s still VERY hard for me to believe that any springtime upwave before the lows of May will take my portfolio back up 20%.
If it does, though, hello capitulation. All I want at this point is to break even and be out of this sector, at least until silver and the HUI drop another 50%.
Sorry, I’m not a shill or a troll. I really want to believe it’s worth holding on to our PM shares and physical.
Hi Michael.
I had recovered my previous losses of 2011, has everyone forgot those already. Silver went backward in 2011. I recovered all my losses when it hit $37 an was even showing a profit of £16,000. I did swear that all I wanted was my money back and I would sell. But listening to people on here and Mr Morgan saying its going to $60 by the end of 2012, i thought I would hang on till at least mid arpril before the May crash that happened last year. Pity I didnt. You can only take so much loss and I think £60,000 is quite sufficeint. What if it went to $8 – $17 dollar area again. I would be wiped out of my life savings. I’m 63 now and cant risk any further funds.
Now here is the best part, if it does go back to $8-$17 I may go back in.
Regards to you all.
Michael,
I would be curious to find out about the quality of your mining stocks. Remember Junior Miners have historically pathetic results. Only 1 out of 100 will still be in business in 5 years. Buy Quality. What I mean by quality is PROVEN RESERVES, PROVEN MANAGEMENT, and PROVEN CASH FLOWS AND LOWER DEBT.
When to enter and when to exit is a fools game. Buy quality core miners, and Gold and Silver physical and your good to go.
Boy David
That last line says it all……so when did all this massive debt, compounded by more debt, subsequent liquidity and more debt and then creation of massive debasement of the currency system become the GO-AHEAD to sell out and run for the hills with your (toilet) paper currency. Hey, your last line said it all!! Good……no great job!
ALL the best,
Marc
Marc,
I loved the ‘(toilet) paper currency’ comment. That’s a great word picture. ha ha. funny stuff.
Thanks Marc.
I get so frustrated listening to all the diatribe from traders, when to get in, when to get out, when to take profits, when to go to the sidelines, etc.
We all understand that the ultimate winners in this fiat fiasco economy are those holding physical. With 15 $ Trillion dollar national debt and growing, investors will miss the train in the rebounds. And like the last 10 years, there are always rebounds because the fundamentals of the economy globally and locally haven’t improved. The
debt is unsustainable.
Best regards,
David
Pull up a multi-year silver chart, and look at the RSI. For long-term coin stackers, what’s so complicated about timing buys?
Below is a paste from today’s blog of Jim Sinclair’s chartist, Trader Dan Norcini. I’m apt to agree with him, quality miners notwithstanding:
“Incidentally, for those who love inflicting further pain and discomfort upon their persons – this is the definition of a masochist – the price of gold in February 2002 was $297/ounce and the price of silver was $4.95 – $5.00. In the depth of the credit crisis in the summer of 2008, gold was trading at $680/ounce while silver was trading $9.75 – $10.00.
While the HUI is obviously trading at higher levels than since then, those who bought gold and silver shares in an effort to provide a safe haven for their wealth from the ravages that they saw coming many years ago, would have been much better off had they simply bought the actual metals instead. To say that the mining shares have underperformed and disappointed is too mild of a word. One more apt would be that they have “crushed” their owners expectations and left a very bitter and deep wound upon them; a wound I might add that I am beginning to seriously question if it can ever be healed again.”
That, is a very interesting comment, my friend.
This thread is fast becoming one for the “bookmark” … a contrarian’s dream come true.
I recall one spring (perhaps 2004) when my PM stocks were dropping $3k per day; and my total portfolio wasn’t much more than $100k.
The lower the stocks went, the tighter I held on. Two years later I was a legend in my own mind!
There’s only one person who can cause me any trepidation if he calls a top … that’s Sir James of Sinclair. And as far as I know, we’re not done by a long shot.
Irwin…..I agree…..LONG TERM HIGHER ,,,MUCH HIGHER…
Great comment, Irwin. It’s a relief to read it.
Let’s try this one, re: Martin (UK) above. My thought of Martin’s capitulation and admission of surrender is that it is reminding me of Joseph Conrad’s novel, Lord Jim. To me, we should call anyone expressing that kind of woe is me, I haven’t got my riches yet, I’m giving up before they scalp me point of view “Lord Jim”.
Lord Jim is the nickname of the main character of Conrad’s book. (Spoiler alert, here for anybody who hasn’t read it.) It’s considered to be in the canon of classics. It’s written as though all 300 or so pages were delivered as ONE conversation between two guys talking about a third guy, Lord Jim. Anyway, the main action of the story is that Jim abandons ship in a storm thinking that the freighter he’s piloting is going to capsize and sink. Only it doesn’t. And so he looks like a tremendous coward. He spends the rest of the book trying to make up for his cowardice.
Anyone jumping ship on gold and silver now is the Lord Jim of the precious metals set.
Good luck, Martin!
I should say that my comment above doesn’t mean to imply that I don’t feel Martin’s pain. I very much do. And I still even have a fear that I will end up being a Lord Jim.
Maybe the solution is to not look at prices for a stretch, like a month or so.
OR………..I believe the solution or cure is to look at the MYRIAD of macro principles that support why you got into the PM sector in the first place. When those change or even start to, I will be one of the first to mention that our contrarian play is through or run its course. Meaning, not that I am anywhere close to the ‘sharpest tool in the shed” but I will face reality when I see it.
Marc
It seems to me that gold is making a third wave down in a reversed head and shoulderpattern. Silver might soon finish the second wave in a similar pattern.
(Creating the head). This remminds me of the period 2007-2009 where we saw a big silverdrop from above 20$ to about 9$.
I felt that at the time and it was quite painfull, but I didn’t sell any silver or gold then and I sure won’t now.
Martin from Uk might be right – 26$ is possible, but it’s not probable.
Theoretically top to bottom right now 50$-26$=24$ add that to the top at 50$, that makes 74$/ounze, let’s call it 70 dollars in a future run higher if this possible reversed head and shoulder fullfills.
Sure – We would all prefer PM going up little by little.
Wild swings is problematic and they test the conviction of the investor.
On the other hand – Extremly positive sentiment is what ends a bullmarket.
The negativism of today ensures an upward continuation, one way or the over.
Dan,
In my humble opinion, an EXCELLENT synopsis and analysis of this current “difficult” time in a PM investor’s life as we endure multiple chaotic, turbulent waves of negative sentiment and downward pressure(s).
Marc
Dan (Sweden),
Appreciate your fine comments. I like your comment, “Wild swings is problematic and they test the conviction of the investor.” I’m not as sophisticated as many traders and investors here. Wish I knew what they knew. But one thing I am assured of is this. The world’s greatest nation’s fiat currency systems cannot be sustained. Global derivative debt is near 600 -700 trillion(boggles the mind). Cannot be repaid. Economies are in real trouble. There seems to be no way out of this mess. Default and collapse is inevitable at some point in the future. Given all that, where else would you want to be, other than gold and silver and miners and other desirable commodities. Maybe I’m just too simple, but nothing scares me about being all in this sector, and I’M NOT BAILING!!!
Thanks Marc and Castanheiro for the nice comments.
I don’t know what it’s like i the US, but here in Sweden you quite often find larger adds in the lokal papers about:
“On friday the 23:e we will be at this location and we buy all the gold you no longer want. Take advantage of the high goldprice!, We will pay you well.”
You’ll find the same thing on commercial radio. = Goldbuying commercial.
They are never selling any gold, they are always buyers.
5 years ago such things didn’t exist.
Is it like that where you’re at too?
Dan, it’s like that in many places; also, former phone shops converting to WeBuyGold+Jewelry places, with owners or employees looking similarly trushworthy…. It will likely be a good idea to start selling as soon as the average header changes to “We Sell Gold!”
Now, it seems as if the guys you mentioned are just one day late:
http://www.goldpricerate.com/common/gold_graph.php?tocurrency=SEK
How about printing this chart, and putting it on windshields and lanterns around the venue? Okay, in Sweden, such non-conformist behavior would probably be considered outrageously antisocial. And the sheeple willing to sell might still think, IMG, it’s dropping, better sell now. Sigh!
“It will likely be a good idea to start selling as soon as the average header changes to “We Sell Gold!””
That’s exactly my point. We used to see only “smart money” buying gold, now we’re seeing the trendfollowing firms and individuals trying to soak up gold from the public. Most of the gold bought is immediately melted, refined and then shipped to China…
During the “smart money” faze, average people didn’t even know gold was going up. Now they know gold has gone up, so they are selling…
“Okay, in Sweden, such non-conformist behavior would probably be considered outrageously antisocial.”
It might seem a bit odd, but not for political reasons.
And it would certainly not be “outrageously antisocial.”
And by the way, We do have a right-wing goverment in office right now.
EXACTLY
Dan,,,the more time goes on the more shops open, to buy all the gold
they (shopowner) can buy…..nothing has slowed down over here…..
and it is not going to slow down anytime soon….with all the political
problems…it is only going to go up….
I’m not expecting a slowdown of fysical buying.
The priceswings in the spotmarket has more to do with papercontracts, not actual bullion or “junk PM metal “. By the way I added some junk silver today.
– That’s the best way to buy silver here = The local coinshop.
In Sweden there’s a 25% sales tax on silver and just about everything else you buy.
(Gold is exempted from that tax)
“with all the political problems”
Sure, All politicans are all the same, left, right, middle…
They all wan’t to get reelected which means that most of the politicans say whatever they need to get in or to stay in office.
Patching a solution together quickly and painlessly is usually prefered to actually trying to solve the real issues…
Last summer, when gold prices were spiking, one could do arbitrage plays in some cities, almost in walking distance, because some (regular, stationary) dealers were predictably slower than others in adjusting their prices.
Scandinavians disliking their tax rates on silver might consider a little shopping tour across the Baltic Sea. Estonia, for one, doesn’t put a VAT on silver coins, however, the somewhat inflated retail prices I found via the web seem to indicate a lack of competition.
impeachemall
Norway doesn’t have any VAT on silver either.
The price on the small amount of silver I bought yesterday was however very competitive. (I bought my junk silver slightly below spot) Why?
Well, This local antique shop sends PM to be melted and when they do there’s a tax on their sales…
Selling a few coins cheaply to me is simply a better deal for them and they get their money faster too.
Thanks for the info, and you certainly have a good metal source there.
Red Deer, near where I live, is a small city of about 83,000 population.
Lots of ads to buy and sell on Kijiji – mostly all from the same place.
http://reddeer.kijiji.ca/c-PostersOtherAds-W0QQUserIdZ10157635
Yeah,
Somewhat….the funny thing is that they ACT like they are doing YOU a favor by buying your gold AND taking it off your hands……what f____-pity!
Marc
Marc
But they are doing me a big favor!… They are paying very well!
(- No, not really, but it would seem like it on the surface if you read the following)
On the 27:e Feb I wrote a mail to the head of sales development at the Swedish branch of the largest bulliondealer in northern Europe.
I wrote about pricediffrencies among bulliondealers and the earlier mentioned goldbuying companies… Three reliable bulliondealers in Sweden had a premium on gold varying from +4,87% to +7,94% on a 100 gram goldbar.
However at the same time three goldbuying companies had a “campain price” buying gold.
The problem was that the goldbuyers were prepared to buy 24 carat gold 10% above spot, so theoreticly you could make a completely safe 5% arbitage on every trade. That’s the kind of buyers I like!!
I did get a quick reply from the bulliondealer and he basicly agreed with everything I wrote and said that these companies probably use a lot of fine print in deals where 24 carat is included “or perhaps they make up rules when necessary”. Which was exactly what I thought when I worte my mail.
The bulliondealer also added that most people probably just watch the headline highest price with the big letters, not the prices used for their 18K necklace or whatever they are selling…
So, in the end Marc you’re correct, they really do act as if they are doing you a great favor, but some of them is really just there to fool you.
I guess you always should be suspicious about companies that’s only interested in taking one side of a trade.
Hi Dan,
Yes, it’s the same here. Pawn shops buying gold/silver, jewelry, ads on the radio, tv ads. Yep, its a gold buying frenzy here. If gold/silver buyers thought we were at or near the top of this run, they wouldn’t be trying to buy everything in sight. They fully expect this thing to run a lot longer and a lot higher.
Hot damn, loinkog pretty useful buddy.
PM shares, gold and silver charts on the longer view forecast major rallies ahead.
The bad news is it might take 3-6 months to get busy and move. I think we can still get some modest rallies in gold and the shares for this spring. The PM shares have taken a beating as the overall broader shares markets, including the PM’s were down. However, it was just the NYC stuff that got pumped and supported not the PM’s. Consequently, they have languished and have been selling. Watch for new PM and physical buying with the shares to follow mildly up over the next 3-6 weeks. Wish we could see more power and it is coming but the hard buying might be later this year – Traderrog
Roger, do you still think we’ll be seeing a wave up in the mining sector next month? And are you feeling an even larger correction awaits in May?
In sum, I’m scared to even still hold my miners. And I’m scared to have heard Big Al say earlier today in his first commentary that he’s starting to believe that us investors should start looking for alternatives to the PM sector?
Do you think that, too? Anybody here agree?
Things seem to be getting hairy…