Wednesday Gold Report
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HI Reo,
I assume that you are referring to the price of precious metals. Am I correct?
Big Al
The TSX.V bumped against its 200 day and dropped a few weeks ago and is building up for another run at it. I would like to see it bust through and bring a big volume of shares with it. I do believe this market can become fair again but the volume will have to come up alot to overrun the big traders playing in it now.
Dan
Yes it will Dan, and yes it needs more volume!
Big Al
Well, to me the PMs and some of the producers really look compressed, very much like a spring, especially the producers. I keep seeing a few of the producers keep bouncing off support and many of the oscillators are just a little extended to the downside. There may be a nice move to the upside coming soon…don’t know but it sure looks and feels like it to me.
I think the G and S are forming a VERY POWEFUL base. How does that portend to prices in the immediate future? -no clue. But I will say that, from my experience, the longer this compression and base forms the BIGGER and FASTER it will explode to the the UPSIDE. When? My bet is a great advance after the elections? We will see.
Marc
I would put my money on it happening sooner. Whoops, I guess I have put my money there!
Big Al
Go huskies!
Marc
You know, it’s funny….
Back in 2003 through 2007, gold AND silver made some spectacular advances, all DURING SO-CALLED economic prosperity. Some really great independent investors and analysts made projections that the economy was going to get hit REALLY hard and gold was going to new highs.
Well, well, well…looky here! It’s 2012, TARP1, TARP2 and Operation Twist was sufficient to prop the markets up to about 12,000 Dow 1250 S&P but they STILL COULD not get going. Then the combined effort of 5 central banks over the world decided to perform currency swaps and this has allowed the markets to get to new highs…BUT THEY STILL CAN’T GET TO NEW ALL-TIME highs.
Watching the money flows, more private investors are taking their money out, while stupid hedge fund managers are piling into the markets. Insider selling by CEOs and other officers are increasing, and the FED keeps juicing the markets with new free money every day.
Now we have even more reports that central banks around the world are buying gold (although Russia did sell 100,000 ounces in February), REALLY smart investors are buying into gold, we see “paper raids” occur on the PMs right around critical price levels to try and drive them down, shaking out the weak hands and causing despair and angst. Almost no one I talk to (around here anyway) believes that things are as bad as they seem, even though all they do is complain as things get worse in front of their eyes. Most people are afraid to even TOUCH the PMs simply because they don’t understand them and their role!
For all the negative things that have come out recently against the bullish gold argument, why isn’t gold trading at $1000 an ounce, or even $400 an ounce? Simple:
WE HAVEN’T SOLVED A DAMN THING WHEN IT COME TO THE ISSUANCE OF DEBT AND DEBT BASED INSTRUMENTS.
Nothing has changed and the only real way to change this is by getting the physical off the market! Take delivery! Write to your mining companies and DEMAND that they withhold some of their metal from the futures market! Better yet, CALL THEM AND COMPLAIN IF THEY AREN’T DOING IT! Call or write your damn Congressman/woman and bring it to their attention if this is how you feel. Start getting serious about this folks because if all we do is sit around and complain that the gold and silver markets are “rigged”, “juiced”, “a con game”, “manipulated”, “shares are naked short”, etc ad nauseum…then we are only ENHANCING the problem by sitting around and complaining and CHOSING TO SAY NOTHING ABOUT IT!!
When investing in a mining company, one of the first questions you should ask (especially if it is a producer) is; “Do you hedge?” Look what happened to Barrick just a few years back! They got clobbered because of their idiotic hedging. It destroyed share value. Look at the outstanding warrants and the number of options held and issued! How many times do they offer financing that dilutes the shares, etc.
Okay, I’ve ranted enough….my fingers are tired. sssiiigggghhhhhhh
Hey, Mark,
If people SELL NOW and PANIC…they should never had been in the PM investment arena is the first place. And, those are the same people who will cry the blues when….as the late, respected “ONE-HANDED ECONOMIST” – Howard Katz – said -“ALL THE BIG MONEY IS MADE IN THE BIG MOVE.” Move in and out of this market at your own choosing and, potentially, peril. The MACRO factors are just getting worse -end of story!
Marc
Hey Marc!
You like ol’ Howard Katz too, eh?! He was great! I really miss his kitco comments. He was just down to earth and made good sense. He sure made me look at myself in a whole different light! Thanks for you support Marc!
I loved the guy…..was really sad to see him go……I subscribed to him for a year and loved his very comprehensive and HISTORICAL insight. I stopped after his passing. His partner, Scott Silva seems like a real astute guy too…..but, there was something special about “Howie” Katz. His investing portfolio was very mundane, but highly effective. GOSH, I wonder what he would think of things now?
Marc
That Mr. Alan, is a very interesting and good idea.
Let’s all think about just how we can take action. I am serious!
Big Al
The TSX.V index used to be a local call for me so they heard from me about the share swapping between exchanges and how they involuntarily short the stock every time. The other exchanges are the Alpha index and the Chi-X index. Both are running low volume.
I have emailed companies but I do think that calling them would net a more complete conversation.
Dan
Hey Dan!
I think that is a GREAT idea! I know John Embry, Jim Sinclair, and Eric Sprott mention that the miners are being naked shorted, but there is one newsletter writer that thinks it’s COMPLETE non-sense simply because it is illegal. I hope he wakes up soon.
Its complex but if you buy on the TSX.V and the trade does not show on your level 2 quote, it means the trade was sent to another exchange. You own the shares and can sell them, the TSX.V does not have the shares yet so they short to you and wait for the shares to be sent from the other exchanges. The shares are in my account and still in the other exchange until all of the sudden a big swap will go through at a lower price generally than what you paid. They make money like the parisites that the money changers are. This also adds NO value I can see to you or me.
Dan
Al, I don’t often agree with Rog but do agree with one comment he made today. We’re in limbo right now in the precious metal markets and should in the next 2-3 days see a break one way or another. My charts at this point is telling me the odds are we break lower. The encouraging thing is that the precious metals may decouple from the stock markets in the future few weeks. If you note, the Dow moved down today but the precious metals didn’t. I believe we are still looking at 1600-1625 with gold and possible 1570. Volume recently picked up with stocks and everyone is talking about money moving into stocks. I don’t think so; I believe it’s signalling a top in stocks. If stocks sell-off, I believe gold will not sell off as much this time around.
Hi Richard,
By stocks do you mean the conventional market or the resource sector?
Big Al
Al, the conventional markets. Sorry, I know what I’m thinking and have to remember there’s another person at the end of a conversation. Rates in the long treasuries broke up this past week and will move down the next couple of days —I’ll then short the treasury market again since I believe we will over the next few months break the Fed stranglehold on the treasury markets.
Al, love it when Trader Rog and you and others discuss specific companies. Would like to hear some more of your guests discuss specific companies even if they are not sponsors on your web site. For example would be great to have both John Keiser and Greg McCoach on. I think it has been a while for both of them to be on the show if I am not mistaken. Thanks!
Hi Al,
Yes…Roger continues with his ANY DAY now price is going back up…always predicting the CORRECTION is over…of course now he’s move out to April for Gold and Silver to move up. It’s not going to happen..and then were very close to the Sell in MAY AND GO AWAY…then it’s the summer doldrums….I’ll repeat myself again..Like the experts like to do…nothing much is going to happen in PM’s until after the election..they will be held down for the next 8-9 months ..then WHO KNOWS..but they aren’t going anywhere soon.
Ok any day now….I don’t think so at all…. but hope your right